542 
FXUS64 KLIX 052003
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
303 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES... 
Updated at 153 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

- Partly to Mostly sunny skies to return as rain chances get
  pushed to along the coast and into the offshore waters. 

- Small Craft Advisories will be in place for most of the coastal
  waters beginning Tuesday through Late Thursday, 

- Tropical development is expected in the southern Gulf this week
  however much uncertainty remains as far as exact location and 
  strength.
  

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Thursday night)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

A weak surface front continues to dissipate across the region 
with generally light ENE winds at the surface. Aloft, winds are 
from the SSW allowing for a weak overrunning pattern. However, any
precipitation should be limited to the immediate coast and 
generally over the coastal waters through Wednesday. Cloud cover 
will decrease from north to south through mid week with more 
sunny conditions noted north of the I-10/12 corridor. 

Temperatures will warm back into the mid 80s to low 90s for highs
north of the coastal lakes, with cloud cover and lingering
sprinkles keeping temps in the low to mid 80s. Lows will generally
range in the 60s to mid 70s. 

By Thursday, the pattern shifts as the remnants  of the frontal
boundary lifts back to the north with rain chances beginning to
increase once again. However, the bulk of any precipitation will
still be limited to mainly the Mississippi and Louisiana coast. 


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Sunday night)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

The likelihood of tropical development in the southern Gulf has
increased, but there remains much uncertainty. NHC has a high 
(80%) chance in the next 7 days. The system, which has not 
developed yet, will bring a push of moisture back into the region.
Rainfall will be heaviest south of the coastal lakes and across 
the MS Gulf Coast, with 3 to 6 inches possible through the long 
term. North and west of the lakes, rainfall amounts a 1 to 3
incheswill be more likely. Although the area of greatest precip 
could shift a bit, the highest chances for rainfall will be along 
and east of a line from Houma to New Orleans to Picayune. 

Depending on the exact outcome of tropical development and further
interaction with mid latitude systems, it reasons that many TC 
systems late in the season tend to move quickly. This would help 
limit any widespread flooding concerns. 

Otherwise, highs in the 80s with lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s
are expected. 



&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Due to clouds across the southeast half of the area, flight 
categories at area TAF sites are currently ranging between VFR/IFR
categories. While there will be some improvement in ceilings 
through the afternoon, a VFR/MVFR mix expected by late afternoon. 
There will be further improvement tonight as sites return to VFR 
categories, but towards day break Tuesday, a return to a mix of 
VFR/IFR statuses is expected, as a result of low stratus affecting
namely KHBG and KPIB. Winds this afternoon will be from the 
northeast between 5-10 knots with a few higher gusts possible. 
These will then become calm to the northeast between 3-5 knots. 
/19

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Strong high pressure across much of the Plains will keep 
northeasterly winds over the the coastal waters. Meanwhile, the 
winds aloft will be from the southwest keeping an overrunning 
pattern that will bring scattered showers across the Gulf waters 
through mid week. 

Marine conditions are likely to worsen beyond Wednesday and Thursday 
as confidence is increasing for tropical low development in the 
southern Gulf. By late in the week, winds across the open waters are 
expected to be from the ENE around 20 to 30 kts, with seas building 
to 9 to 12 feet, occasionally to 15 feet. 

Uncertainty still remains as to the exact development and
placement of anything tropical. 


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026 

Rainfall chances will steadily decrease this afternoon and into 
Tuesday. By Wednesday and part of the day Thursday, rainfall will 
generally be limited to the immediate coastal areas. Minimum RH 
will start to fall to around 55 percent north of Interstate 10 
Tuesday afternoon, and 45 to 55 percent in that area Wednesday. 
The driest afternoon is expected to be Thursday for a time before 
unsettled weather returns with the potential of tropical system 
late this week. Fog will not be a significant concern through the 
early portion of the week. 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 3 AM CDT Friday for 
     GMZ532-534>536-554-557-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 3 AM CDT Friday for 
     GMZ541-543-551-553-570-572.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 3 AM CDT Friday for 
     GMZ534>536-554-557-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 3 AM CDT Friday for 
     GMZ543-551-553-570-572.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JFL
LONG TERM....JFL
AVIATION...MSW
MARINE...JFL