541 
FXUS63 KFSD 051938
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
238 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy southerly wind gusts 25 to 35 mph into the evening.
  Gusts as high as 40 mph in south central South Dakota. Wind
  gusts 20 to 30 mph may continue tonight in higher elevations.

- Warm and predominantly dry conditions continue through most 
  of the work week. Low (less than 25%) for showers late week 
  near the US Highway 20 corridor.

- Warm and dry conditions and occasionally gusty afternoon winds
  could bring some fire weather concerns as grasses dry out.

- Widespread rain chances look to return late next weekend and
  early next week, but confidence in details remains low (less
  than 30%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT: Shaping up to be another gorgeous early 
October day with temperatures in the 70s and lower 80s. Surface high 
pressure slides east today, with tightening SPG ahead of developing 
trough across the western Dakotas and southern Canada, were seeing 
gusts 25-35 mph. Some gusts around 40 mph possible in south central 
SD. Southerly flow and WAA continues to keep conditions warmer and 
drier, so raised highs and lowered dew points again for today as NBM 
remains too cool/moist. Warmer temperatures, dry conditions, and 
stronger winds could lead to some very locally elevated fire 
concerns this afternoon and early evening for anywhere fuels have 
begun to dry.

Weak mid level wave moves through this evening into tonight. Breezy 
conditions continue into the overnight hours, although some gusts 
around 30 mph remain possible near/along the Buffalo Ridge with the 
LLJ increasing. May see some lower clouds develop overnight ahead of 
a boundary but no precipitation is expected. Lows tonight remain 
mild, only falling into the lower and mid 50s.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Northwesterly flow aloft promotes a couple of 
weak waves through the northern and central Plains; however, lack of 
moisture keeps dry conditions in place. Surface boundary continues 
to slide east during the day Tuesday into the evening, with high 
pressure moving in for Wednesday. 

Continued the trend of raising highs and lowering lows and dew 
points from the NBM given the continued cool and wet bias. CONSShort 
in addition to the 90th (higher) and 10th (lower) NBM percentiles 
were incorporated in to make those changes. Highs near and above 80 
for most of the area Tuesday, which is about 10-15 degrees above 
seasonal averages. Slightly cooler Wednesday thanks to more 
northwesterly surface flow and CAA. Highs in the 70s and lows in the 
upper 40s and lower 50s. 

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: Surface high slides east Thursday, with continued 
northwesterly flow aloft. By Thursday night, most guidance shows a 
surface warm front move north. Guidance is split on the track and 
strength of any lower and mid level waves through Friday, so 
confidence is lower during this time. In addition to timing and 
track differences, next biggest question is the depth of any 
moisture return. GFS/GEFS remain more bullish on the potential for 
measurable precipitation, with moderate to high chances (over 40%), 
with the ECMWF ensemble lower (40% or less). GEFS also has the 
highest (30% or less) probability of a tenth of an inch of rain with 
other ensembles even lower. Temperatures generally near to above 
normal. 

THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK: Although guidance varies on the 
details, all deterministic models point to a shift in the pattern 
through next weekend and into early next week. A quick short wave 
moves through early in the weekend. By Sunday, ridging aloft shifts 
east with troughing digging into the western CONUS, bringing 
southwesterly flow to the region. Low pressure strengthens and moves 
east into the early part of the week bringing more widespread 
precipitation chances. Ensemble probabilities from the GFS and ECMWF 
show moderate to high (over 50%) chances for at least a tenth of an 
inch of precipitation into early Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

VFR conditions through the period; however, some guidance hints
at some lower VFR to upper level MVFR clouds near/east of I-29 
late tonight into early Tuesday morning. That said, not 
expecting more than FEW/SCT coverage at this time. 

Main concern through the period remains winds. Southerly winds
gust this afternoon and evening of 20 to 30 knots, up to 35
knots in south central SD. Winds may still gust around 25 knots
overnight, stronger across the higher elevations of the Buffalo
Ridge. LLJ strengthens overnight mainly along/east of the James
River which brings LLWS to areas near I-29 and east where the
LLJ is strongest. Winds begin to shift to the west/northwest
through Tuesday morning and early afternoon.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SG
AVIATION...SG