265 
FXUS65 KBOU 051749
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1149 AM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and unseasonably warm through at least Saturday, with
  record/near record warmth on Monday.

- Isolated showers possible (15-30% chance) for the higher
  elevations Tuesday and Wednesday. Precipitation, if any, will 
  be highly localized.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Monday/...
Issued at 1147 AM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Clear, sunny skies greet us this morning as we head into what should 
be our warmest day this week. The upper level ridge that's been 
overhead the last couple days continues to sit over the Rockies, 
keeping subsidence and downsloping winds over the area. Thanks to 
warmer temperatures in the mid-levels (850-700mb) and those 
downsloping winds, temperatures today should reach into the upper 
80s for much of the urban corridor and plains, with high temps 
possibly reaching into the low 90s for portions of the northern 
plains. The record high temperature for Denver on October 5 is 87F, 
and it's likely (~70%) that we'll at least tie that record today.

Tomorrow's temps will continue to trend above normal, though a few 
degrees cooler than today thanks to some expected cloud cover. A 
weak disturbance in the ridge Tuesday and Wednesday could bring the 
chance for isolated showers over the higher elevations in the 
afternoon both days, mainly in Park and Clear Creek Counties. The 
rest of the week should remain warm and dry, with temperatures 
staying about 10-15 degrees above normal through Saturday. 

As of the latest model guidance, Sunday should be when we start to 
cool back off, with a cooler, possibly wetter pattern settling in by 
Monday as an upper-level trough pushes into the region. While models 
are in fairly good agreement on the timing of this trough, there's a 
lot of uncertainty as to how deep the trough becomes and how much 
moisture it pulls in, both of which will affect what weather impacts 
we see next Monday and Tuesday. Interestingly, the latest ECMWF runs 
have the remnants of what is currently Hurricane Rachel getting 
dragged to the northeast and pulled into the area along the 
downstream side of the trough. The GFS, on the other hand, keeps 
Hurricane Rachel on a northwesterly path, away from any interaction 
with the trough, which could mean we see less significant weather 
impacts associated with this system. 

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday/...
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Southwest winds
are currently holding at DEN but should become light (~6 kts) and
variable within this hour. By 20Z/21Z, a more easterly wind
component should arrive at all terminals with typical diurnal 
wind pattern this evening. Similarly to this morning, drainage 
winds may be slightly stronger, 12-15 kts, before light and 
variable winds return.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AGS
AVIATION...MAI