110 
FXUS63 KFGF 051728
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1228 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry conditions will prevail this week. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

...Synopsis...

Northwesterly flow aloft behind the trough digging into the
Great Lakes, and that pattern will continue into the upcoming
work week. Weak embedded shortwaves producing light rain showers
will stay to the northeast of our counties, with a dry period
expected. After tomorrow morning, temps will be on a general
warming trend as the upper trough pulls further east and heights
rise. A bit of a weak cold front mid-week, but warming back up
again Friday and into the weekend as flow starts to become more
southwesterly. Some of the ensemble members try to bring out a
shortwave trough and some precip on Sunday, but uncertainty in
that pattern change is still high.

...Frosty temperatures tonight...

Surface high pressure extending from Manitoba into the Dakotas
will begin to shift eastward tonight. Cloud cover from the
reinforcing shortwave currently digging into northeastern MN
will also shift eastward, although can't completely rule out
some more cirrus coming in from the west towards morning. Best
chances of temps bottoming out below 36 degrees are in the Lake
of the Wood region and in west central MN. NBM has probabilities
of getting below 36 of 60 to 70 percent in some areas, but at
this point 32 and below seems unlikely. Most of that area is
boggy and unlikely to have impacts, but there are some areas in
the western portions of the advisory area that have more
population. Further west into the Red River Valley and eastern
ND, there will be more wind as winds start to pick up from the 
southeast as the high pulls away. Not completely ruling out
frost formation particularly near the Canadian border, but not
confident enough to include quite yet.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

VFR will prevail throughout the TAF period. Winds will be out of
the south/southeast today, with gusts during the afternoon in
the 18 to 25 knot range. After sunset, winds will decrease.
Overnight, LLWS will be a concern at KBJI. KFAR is on the edge 
of where LLWS is expected to develop. At this time, LLWS was not
added to the KFAR TAF, but if there is a shift westward it may 
need to be included in future TAF issuance. For Tuesday, winds 
increase again, this time out of the west/northwest, with 
sustained winds up to 12 knots during Tuesday morning. Any 
potential for gusts holds off until after this TAF period, into 
Tuesday afternoon. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Rafferty