747 
FXUS65 KBOU 021207
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
607 AM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and unseasonably warm weather returns for the majority of
  the week ahead. Record/near record warmth next Monday.

- A few showers expected Tuesday as a weak disturbance moves 
  across. 

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/...
Issued at 1100 PM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

It was a pleasant day across northeastern Colorado today. Sunshine 
returned and the urban corridor only saw highs in the upper 60s 
to near 70. Tonight's temperatures will feel like fall as lows in 
the 40s are expected in the plains with mid 20s to upper 30s in 
the mountains and valleys. There is also the chance for some 
patchy fog/low clouds Friday morning mainly in the eastern plains,
Cheyenne Ridge, and Palmer Divide. A weak cyclone developing 
overnight may also support a slight risk of fog north of Denver 
along the I-25 corridor. 

This weekend a ridge is still expected to build over eastern Utah 
and western Colorado bringing above average temperatures. Friday and 
Sunday will see similar temperatures with upper 70s/lower 80s across 
the I-25 corridor, Denver metro, and eastern plains. Lincoln County 
and the Palmer Divide will be slightly cooler in the upper 60s.
Saturday will be a few degrees warmer area wide in the low/mid 80s 
with some locations reaching the upper 80s. Additionally, a weak 
cold front appears to makes its way through the northeastern plains 
Saturday afternoon causing breezy conditions with gusts in the 20-30 
kts range. This will not tame temperatures at all though as mixing 
will still induce temperatures in the low/mid-80s. It is also worth 
it to note that elevated fire weather conditions are expected for a 
few hours Saturday afternoon in the Cheyenne Ridge region with the 
passage of the front. 

Monday temperatures heat up to near record for Denver. Current 
forecasted temperature is 86 and that would put us just one degree 
shy from the daily record set in 2024 at 87 degrees. Elsewhere, we 
should reach the mid/upper 80s while it stays slightly cooler in the 
upper 70s near Lincoln County and the Palmer Divide. Deterministic 
models shows a weak disturbance in the ridge that could move across 
our area Tuesday, and forecast soundings depict some moisture moving 
in aloft. This should be the greatest chance in the higher terrain 
as the disturbance moves overhead and moisture fills in. We 
currently have a 20-30% for an isolated shower or weak storm across 
the high country. With a focus on the Central Mountains, such as 
Clear Creek and Summit Counties. Through the end of next week the 
dry stagnant pattern looks to return as the ridge develops overhead 
once again. Above normal temperatures are expected to continue in 
the upper 70s and lower 80s. 

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday/...
Issued at 539 AM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Current observations show southerly winds in place at KDEN/KAPA,
with light and mostly variable winds remaining at KBJC. Satellite
imagery shows fog in place along the Palmer Divide and Cheyenne
Ridge, with the southerly winds/compressional warming off the
Palmer keeping the fog from progressing northward into KAPA. While
fog is still not expected to directly impact the airfields, a few
observations over the northern urban corridor have two to three
degree dewpoint depressions, which could still produce additional
fog development with any slight cooling or increase to RH in the
next hour or two. With northerly winds in place along the northern
I-25 corridor, if fog (or even some low clouds) were to form, this
could still get advected southward towards KBJC/KDEN and disrupt
visibility for planes landing from the south. Therefore, have kept
the VCFG from 13Z-15Z as this scenario cannot be completely ruled
out despite confidence remaining low at this time. 

Expecting winds to become slightly more south-southwesterly and
decrease in magnitude for a few hours early this morning before
turning back to the south to southeast for the afternoon. The
latest guidance has started to trend slightly more east-southeasterly
in the past few runs, but speeds should remain lighter with this 
scenario (generally below 7kts) compared to the slightly higher 
speeds with a more southeasterly winds portrayed in the TAF. Another
round of enhanced southerly winds is expected through the 
evening, before settling into drainage winds for the overnight 
hours. 


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schnell
AVIATION...9