808 
FXUS65 KBOU 020504
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1104 PM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and unseasonably warm weather returns for the majority of
  the week ahead. Record/near record warmth next Monday.

- A few showers expected Tuesday as a weak disturbance moves 
  across. 

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/...
Issued at 1100 PM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

It was a pleasant day across northeastern Colorado today. Sunshine 
returned and the urban corridor only saw highs in the upper 60s 
to near 70. Tonight's temperatures will feel like fall as lows in 
the 40s are expected in the plains with mid 20s to upper 30s in 
the mountains and valleys. There is also the chance for some 
patchy fog/low clouds Friday morning mainly in the eastern plains,
Cheyenne Ridge, and Palmer Divide. A weak cyclone developing 
overnight may also support a slight risk of fog north of Denver 
along the I-25 corridor. 

This weekend a ridge is still expected to build over eastern Utah 
and western Colorado bringing above average temperatures. Friday and 
Sunday will see similar temperatures with upper 70s/lower 80s across 
the I-25 corridor, Denver metro, and eastern plains. Lincoln County 
and the Palmer Divide will be slightly cooler in the upper 60s.
Saturday will be a few degrees warmer area wide in the low/mid 80s 
with some locations reaching the upper 80s. Additionally, a weak 
cold front appears to makes its way through the northeastern plains 
Saturday afternoon causing breezy conditions with gusts in the 20-30 
kts range. This will not tame temperatures at all though as mixing 
will still induce temperatures in the low/mid-80s. It is also worth 
it to note that elevated fire weather conditions are expected for a 
few hours Saturday afternoon in the Cheyenne Ridge region with the 
passage of the front. 

Monday temperatures heat up to near record for Denver. Current 
forecasted temperature is 86 and that would put us just one degree 
shy from the daily record set in 2024 at 87 degrees. Elsewhere, we 
should reach the mid/upper 80s while it stays slightly cooler in the 
upper 70s near Lincoln County and the Palmer Divide. Deterministic 
models shows a weak disturbance in the ridge that could move across 
our area Tuesday, and forecast soundings depict some moisture moving 
in aloft. This should be the greatest chance in the higher terrain 
as the disturbance moves overhead and moisture fills in. We 
currently have a 20-30% for an isolated shower or weak storm across 
the high country. With a focus on the Central Mountains, such as 
Clear Creek and Summit Counties. Through the end of next week the 
dry stagnant pattern looks to return as the ridge develops overhead 
once again. Above normal temperatures are expected to continue in 
the upper 70s and lower 80s. 

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday/...
Issued at 550 PM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Current observations show winds are already turning SE across the 
Denver metro. We expect breezier than usual (10-15KT) southerly 
drainage winds tonight at KDEN and KAPA, and weak (<06KT) WNW-NW 
winds at KBJC. There is a small chance (20%) for some fog to develop 
north of Denver, mainly west of I-25, around sunrise but we don't
expect any major impacts at the airports. Winds may become light 
and variable in the morning or perhaps a bit more southwesterly 
due to the development of a weak cyclone. However, we expect a 
return to SSE winds (~10KT) through most of the day and evening on
Friday.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schnell
AVIATION...AA