372 
FXUS64 KMOB 020004
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
704 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 704 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

 - Numerous to widespread showers and storms are expected Friday
   through the weekend. Storms will be capable of producing heavy
   rainfall, which may lead to localized flash flooding.

 - A High risk of life-threatening rip currents exists at all area
   beaches through the weekend.

 - Minor coastal flooding expected with water levels up to 2 feet
   above normally dry ground during late night high tide cycles
   tonight through the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 641 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

We went ahead and issued a Coastal Flood Advisory central and
coastal Mobile county and central Baldwin county from midnight 
tonight to 8 AM CDT Friday for water levels up to 2 feet above 
normally dry ground. The highest water levels will occur during 
tonight's high tide cycle generally between 1-5 AM, with water
likely slow to recede due to locally higher winds associated with
the expected late night and early morning convection. The spring 
tidal cycle will continue through the weekend, so additional 
Coastal Flood Advisories will be issued to coincide with each high
tide cycle. /22

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1112 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

A rather wet period is in store for the area this weekend. A
stubborn upper ridge over the southeastern states which extends 
along the northern Gulf coast causes a positively tilted upper 
trof over the southern/central Plains into northern Mexico to 
mostly shear out through Friday. This leaves a modest upper low 
near the New Mexico/Mexico border with a weak upper trof extending
to near the mid Mississippi River valley. An upper trof amplifies
over much of the eastern CONUS this weekend and absorbs the 
remnant weak upper trof, leading to the upper ridge breaking down 
and retreating into the central Gulf. This pattern will slowly 
bring a frontal boundary from the Plains/interior eastern states 
to extend from coastal Texas into northern Alabama by Friday 
afternoon. Interestingly, a system over the southwestern Gulf 
meanwhile becomes better developed Friday into Friday night and 
develops an inverted surface trof up along the Texas coast, 
intersecting with the frontal boundary. This combined surface 
trof/frontal boundary gradually shifts to become oriented from the
northwestern Gulf to across the forecast area this weekend.

Deep layer moisture steadily increases over the forecast area
through Saturday, with precipitable water values climbing to 
around 2.5 inches which persist into Sunday. As noted by the 
previous shift, these values are way above seasonal normals for 
this time of year. This pattern indicates a trend towards very 
high rain chances for the area, along with the potential for 
flooding concerns, possibly as early as Friday but especially this
weekend as a frontal boundary becomes positioned over the area 
along with copious deep layer moisture. WPC has a marginal risk of
flooding for nearly the entire area on Friday, then a slight risk
of flooding is in place for essentially the western half of the 
area on Saturday, with a marginal risk elsewhere. A slight risk of
flooding continues for the entire area for Sunday. Rainfall 
totals through Sunday look to range from 2-3 inches inland to 4-5 
inches mainly across extreme southeast Mississippi, extreme 
southwest Alabama, and a portion of the western Florida panhandle.
These rainfall amounts will see adjustments in the coming 
forecast updates, and localized amounts of 6-9 inches cannot be 
ruled out near the coast depending on how the convection sets up.

For Monday into Thursday, the eastern states upper trof moves off
into the western Atlantic then another upper trof moves into the 
eastern states on Thursday. A frontal boundary will be oriented 
over the southern portion of the area Monday morning then slowly 
moves into the northern Gulf on Tuesday, and slowly continues 
further into the Gulf through Thursday. For Monday, have gone with
likely pops along/east of I-65 with chance pops elsewhere, then 
rain chances slowly decrease through Thursday to chance pops east 
of I-65 with mostly slight chance pops elsewhere. A High Risk of 
rip currents is expected through Sunday, then a moderate risk 
follows for Monday. Will need to monitor for the potential for 
minor coastal flooding mainly over northern Mobile Bay during high
tide late tonight and late Friday night when tidal heights of 
1.5-1.6 feet are indicated, just shy of 1.7 feet when coastal 
flooding begins. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 704 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Currently there is a lull in convection over our area with only
isolated light rain showers, and this trend will continue through
around 02/09z. Shower and thunderstorm activity will then increase
along the coast into southeast Mississippi around 02/09z, so kept
a PROB30 group for all TAF sites through 02/13z. An additional
PROB30 group will occur from 02/13z until 02/19z as stability
decreases in the morning. Drops of cigs/vis to MVFR and even 
locally IFR within the strongest storms are expected, along with
stronger wind gusts. Otherwise, winds will remain generally 
easterly to southeasterly through Friday around 10-15 knots with 
periodic gusts up to 20 knots, especially closer to the coast. /22

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

A moderate to occasionally strong southeasterly flow continues 
into Sunday. Winds relax by Monday morning and turn northerly to 
northeasterly behind a cold front. Advisory level conditions are 
possible Tuesday through Thursday as we get strong easterly winds.
Seas increase to 3-5 feet late week into early this weekend with 
another bump to 4-7 feet possible in the middle of next week with 
the increasing winds. SS/97

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  87  72  85 /  30  90  40  90 
Pensacola   76  85  75  84 /  40  90  60  90 
Destin      76  85  75  84 /  40  90  60  90 
Evergreen   68  89  69  87 /  10  70  40  90 
Waynesboro  69  89  70  85 /  10  70  40  80 
Camden      69  90  70  87 /  10  60  40  70 
Crestview   70  87  70  85 /  10  90  40  90 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$