National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDBIS
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDBIS
Product Timestamp: 2026-10-02 00:02 UTC
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459 FXUS63 KBIS 020002 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 702 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near-freezing low temperatures across much of the state tonight into Friday morning. - Near normal temperatures through the weekend, warming to above normal early to mid next week. - An overall dry weather pattern expected through at least the middle of next week, with only low chances for very light rain Friday and Saturday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 701 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026 No major changes are needed for this update. Current conditions and trends were blended into the forecast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026 Currently, west/northwest flow aloft with upper level ridging over the western CONUS and a long wave trough over central/eastern Canada. Strong surface high pressure continues developing east across the Dakotas, with a steady northwest breeze and a mostly clear sky over the region along to ahead of this feature. Sfc high will continue east tonight, with winds becoming light and variable with time (along with some southerly return flow west). Some increase in mid/upper level clouds ahead of an embedded mid level impulse moving into the Northern Rockies. Lows tonight again dropping into the 30s, with frost developing especially in the more prone areas. The above mentioned mid level wave continues east for Friday, moving across northern areas of the region and contributing to low chances for showers Fri afternoon north and east. Expect moisture reaching the surface to be minimal. Return flow also increases in the wake of the sfc high, with a breezy south/southeasterly wind during the day tomorrow. We remain in a steady west/northwesterly flow aloft this weekend, maintaining mainly dry weather and near normal temperatures. Western CONUS ridge nudges east into the Great Plains as it deamplifies early next week, but will provide for temperatures trending to above normal Monday/Tuesday, when highs warm well into the 70s to around 80. The only concern regarding fire weather will be over the southwest, where RH values are projected lowest next week (20-25 percent), and if this is coupled with any elevated afternoon winds. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 701 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Some very light rain showers or sprinkles could move across the state Friday morning and afternoon, with no impacts to aviation. Winds will become light and variable into tonight, then south- southeast around 10-20 kts on Friday with higher afternoon gusts. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Hollan DISCUSSION...NH AVIATION...Hollan