703 
FXUS64 KFWD 302011
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
311 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

...New LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- A Flood Watch is in effect for much of North and Central Texas
  through Friday morning as slow moving thunderstorms will bring
  heavy rain and isolated flash flooding to the region. 

- A couple strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along and
  west of the I-35 corridor this afternoon into tonight.

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures are expected this
  weekend into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday evening) 
Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

After the last few weeks of above-average temperatures and little 
to no rain, our long awaited pattern change has arrived. Aloft, an
upper-level low associated with a digging trough will move into
the TX/OK panhandles with surface cyclogenesis developing into the 
Central and High Plains. As height falls continue to overspread 
the region, strong surface-level moisture return will combine with 
deep mid-level moisture associated with the remnants of Polo to 
support scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. Modest 
destabilization of the airmass across North and Central Texas is 
expected due to diurnal heating as much of the short term guidance
resolved 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Furthermore, low-level shear
will increase through the evening hours with the development of a 
LLJ resulting in 0-1 km shear potentially exceeding 25-30 knots. 
This will provide a window this evening for a few strong to severe
thunderstorms, generally along and west of the I-35 corridor. 
While most will not see severe weather, isolated damaging winds, 
large hail, and a brief spin-up tornado or two will be possible
before the next round of convection arrives early Thursday
morning. Temperatures this afternoon will peak in the low 90s 
(particularly east of I-35), with overnight lows in the mid to low
70s for most.

Early Thursday morning, any discrete storms that may still be 
ongoing are expected to merge into a broader line of heavy rain 
and embedded storms approaching from our west. CAM guidance
continues to be squirrelly at best when determining timing of the 
line into the region, with the latest HRRR runs continuing to slow 
down arrival of this main round of convection into North and 
Central Texas to the 5-9 AM timeframe. Given continued short-range
model variability, opted for more widespread PoPs of 50-80% 
through the I-35 corridor as the line pushes west to east. While 
there is a modest concern for isolated severe straight-line wind 
gusts and possibly a spin-up tornado with any embedded QLCS 
convection, the main threat to watch for will be localized flash 
flooding. Though short to mid-range guidance has struggled with 
QPF, widespread rainfall amounts of 1.5 to 3 inches expected. 
There is a low (<20%) chance for localized totals of 4-5 inches 
with any training thunderstorms. These greatest rainfall totals 
will likely be west of I-35 as recent short-term guidance depicts 
a more progressive convective evolution through Thursday morning.

Going into the afternoon on Thursday, the setup will be highly
dependent on the position of a weak boundary moving southeast 
behind the main storm line. The current 'most likely' scenario is 
for said boundary to be draped southwest to northeast, from 
Waco/Killeen/Temple up through Canton and into Northeast TX. 
Behind this boundary, low rain chances will continue with 
temperatures potentially remaining in the 70s. Ahead of the 
boundary (generally East Texas and the Brazos Valley), humid 
conditions will continue with highs in the low-90s. Scattered 
showers and storms (50-60% coverage) will be possible again 
Thursday afternoon and evening in proximity to the aforementioned 
surface boundary.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

...Thursday Night through Friday...

By the end of this work week, the primary mid-level disturbance 
responsible for widespread showers and storms Wednesday into 
Thursday will depart the region to the northeast. In its wake, 
weak northerly winds will prevail at the surface allowing cooler 
fall air to advect into the area from the Central Plains. Aloft, a
weak upper-level trough will remain over the southern Rockies and
High Plains, likely due to persistent weak cold air advection at 
the surface north and west of a stationary front that should 
extend from the Texas Gulf Coast into the Southeast. Scattered 
showers are expected to continuously develop across the region 
during this time frame (40-60% coverage) due to weak forcing for 
ascent from the disturbance aloft and lift in proximity to the 
surface stationary front. While a thunderstorm or two can't be 
ruled out, MUCAPE will be extremely limited (<500 J/kg) mitigating
the potential for a more substantial thunderstorm threat.
Continued cloud cover and weak CAA at the surface will result in
slightly below normal high temperatures on Friday in the upper-70s 
and lower-80s.

...Saturday through Tuesday...

Isolated rain showers (30-40%) will linger through the weekend as
the weak trough aloft slowly moves east and gives way to zonal
flow. Rain chances will be greatest in Central Texas which is 
closer to locally enhanced low level lift associated with the 
aforementioned stationary front. By sometime late Sunday/early 
Monday, a reinforcing cold front should sweep through the area 
north to south. Behind this front, upper-level ridging and
attendant synoptic scale subsidence will result in surface high 
pressure building into the area. This will clear skies and push 
rain chances south and east of our area bringing mild and dry 
conditions for the weekend. High temperatures will remain 
relatively the same as this weekend, though overnight lows will 
trend slightly below normal (upper-50s to lower-60s) due to the 
drier air and clear skies at night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Isolated to widely scattered TSRA (30-40% coverage) is expected 
to develop after 21Z in and around D10. There will be a low chance
(10%) for brief IFR cigs if any of this activity impacts 
terminals directly. There is great uncertainty with the timing of 
a line of storms that will move through D10 later tonight, 
sometime between 07Z and 13Z. These storms may contain strong 
winds gusting to 40-50 knots. Despite timing uncertainties, there
is confidence terminals will be impacted at some point during the
above time frame. 

The southern extent of the line and timing is more uncertain
(KACT), so will keep TEMPO TSRA at KACT 12Z to 15Z which is the
greatest potential for impacts at the terminal. However, there is
a low chance (20-30%) for scattered SHRA and TSRA to linger
invof KACT through the end of the TAF period.

Lastly, MVFR/IFR cigs will build in behind morning storms. IFR is
more uncertain (30-40% chance), so have left IFR as a SCT deck at
TAF sites for now and prevailed MVFR.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    93  74  84  71 /  40  80 100  80 
Waco                94  74  88  70 /  30  60  90  90 
Paris               94  73  86  68 /  10  30  80  90 
Denton              93  71  83  68 /  50  90 100  70 
McKinney            93  71  83  67 /  30  70 100  90 
Dallas              94  75  85  71 /  40  70 100  90 
Terrell             94  73  87  68 /  20  40  80  90 
Corsicana           94  73  89  69 /  20  20  80  90 
Temple              94  73  89  69 /  30  50  90  90 
Mineral Wells       91  69  83  66 /  60 100  90  50 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday morning for TXZ091>094-100>105-
115>121-129>134-141>146-156>161-174.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Darrah/Davis
LONG TERM....Darrah 
AVIATION...Darrah