004 
FXUS64 KFWD 300735
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
235 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Heavy rainfall will impact much of North and Central Texas
  tonight through early Friday, therefore, a Flood Watch will be 
  in effect from this afternoon through Friday morning. 

- A couple strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along and
  west of the US-281 corridor this afternoon and evening.

- Much cooler weather is expected this weekend with continued
  clouds and scattered showers/storms lingering through Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

The long advertised pattern change will begin unfolding across 
North and Central Texas Wednesday as the upper ridge finally loses
control to the approaching western trough. The primary upper low 
will move into the southern Rockies while surface cyclogenesis 
occurs across the High Plains. A pacific front extending south 
from this low will become the primary focus for convection as it 
approaches western portions of the forecast area. 

The region is beginning today dry, although showers may skirt our
western counties later this morning. Increasing large-scale 
ascent and a deeply moistening column will support scattered 
thunderstorm development during the afternoon, initially favoring 
western North and Central Texas. A few showers and storms may also
develop near the I-35 corridor in North Texas, however, coverage 
should remain scattered at best. 

There will be a window for a few strong to severe storms 
Wednesday afternoon and early evening, particularly along and west
of US-281. MLCAPE of nearly 1500 J/kg combined with modest deep-
layer shear will support organized storms and perhaps a few 
supercells. The main hazards will be damaging winds, although a 
few instances of large hail cannot be ruled out. Low-level shear 
will be locally enhanced as we head into the evening hours as the 
low-level jet strengthens, which could support a brief period 
where conditions may favor a quick spin-up tornado. This potential
remains low but it will be something to monitor later today. 

As we head into tonight, weather conditions will quickly change 
from west to east as a more focused line of showers and storms 
shifts east. A nearly stationary southwest to northeast oriented 
frontal zone is expected to extend from the Texas Hill Country 
into Oklahoma as increasingly favorable upper-level forcing 
overspreads the region. A strengthening upper jet will enhance 
ascent while a persistent southerly low-level jet continually 
replenishes the anomalously moist airmass. 

Storm motions will become nearly parallel to the surface boundary,
creating a favorable setup for repeated development and training.
This, combined with precipitable water values above 2 inches, will
support very efficient rainfall production. The flash flood threat
should initially be maximized across the Big Country and western
portions of North Texas this evening before gradually expanding
east towards the I-35 corridor tonight. For this reason, a Flood
Watch will begin this afternoon and continue through Friday
morning across much of North and Central Texas. Widespread totals
of 2-4 inches are expected within the watch, with localized 5-7
inch amounts possible where thunderstorms repeatedly track across
the same locations. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Heavy rain and flooding concerns will continue into Thursday as 
the corridor of strongest moisture convergence slowly translates 
east. 

The greatest flash flood threat during the early Thursday morning
hours should gradually shift from western North Texas towards the
I-35 corridor as training showers and thunderstorms continue 
along the slow-moving boundary. By this point, antecedent rainfall
will become an increasingly important factor, allowing flooding 
to occur more readily due to previous waves of precipitation. 

Cloud cover, widespread precipitation, and the approaching cold 
front will lead to a drop in temperatures on Thursday. Afternoon 
highs will largely be in the upper 70s to lower 80s across much of
the region, roughly 10-20 degrees cooler than today. 

Rain coverage should become somewhat more scattered Thursday 
night as the initial upper disturbance lifts northeast and the 
first axis of stronger forcing departs. The flooding threat should
begin to decrease, but it will not disappear entirely. Additional
pockets of heavy rain falling on areas that already received 
heavy rain may still cause flooding. 

The broader upper trough will remain slow to leave the region 
Friday. Another shortwave rotating around the trough will maintain
ascent over the post-frontal airmass, while isentropic ascent 
over the cooler surface air supports additional showers and 
embedded thunderstorms. The exact placement of the more persistent
rain will depend considerably on where Thursday's convection 
leaves the frontal zone and associated boundaries. 

The upper system will remain nearby through the weekend, keeping 
the forecast cooler, cloudier, and periodically wet. Widespread 
heavy rainfall is less likely Saturday and Sunday than during the 
Wednesday night to Thursday period, but scattered showers and 
embedded storms will remain possible and could still interfere 
with outdoor plans. 

Temperatures this weekend will feel markedly different compared to
the recent heat, with highs generally in the upper 70s to lower
80s and overnight lows falling into the upper 50s to 60s. The
upper trough should finally begin shifting farther east late in
the weekend or early next week, allowing rain chances to gradually
diminish. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Concerns -- MVFR ceilings will arrive later this morning at all 
TAF sites. Afternoon convection may impact North Texas sites. 
The active weather will persist tonight through Thursday. 

The period of benign weather conditions is coming to an end as 
moisture continues to surge north this early Wednesday morning. 
MVFR ceilings are ongoing south of KACT, with a gradual northward
progress through the coming hours. Eventually, MVFR ceilings will
reach all of North Texas closer to 10z. The MVFR ceilings will 
likely persist through around 16z before lifting into the VFR 
category by the afternoon. 

Models continue to advertise the potential for a few storms 
within the D10 airspace this afternoon. Overall, expect coverage 
to remain scattered. Direct impacts to the individual terminals 
remains low, however, en route traffic may be impacted between 
21z Wed through 01z Thu. 

A window of minimal precipitation is expected this evening before
a more substantial line of thunderstorms slowly shifts east 
towards the I-35 corridor. This line will encroach on the D10 
airspace closer to 04z with direct impacts to TAF sites looking 
likely by 06z. Erratic winds will accompany the line of storms as 
they slowly move east. 

The unsettled weather pattern will persist through the rest of the
TAF period (and likely beyond) as waves of low clouds and
precipitation impact all TAF sites. 

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    94  74  84  71 /  40  80 100  80 
Waco                95  74  88  70 /  30  60  90  90 
Paris               93  73  86  68 /  10  30  80  90 
Denton              93  71  83  68 /  50  90 100  70 
McKinney            93  71  83  67 /  30  70 100  90 
Dallas              95  75  85  71 /  40  70 100  90 
Terrell             94  73  87  68 /  20  40  80  90 
Corsicana           94  73  89  69 /  20  20  80  90 
Temple              94  73  89  69 /  30  50  90  90 
Mineral Wells       91  69  83  66 /  60 100  90  50 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from this afternoon through Friday morning for 
TXZ091>094-100>105-115>121-129>134-141>146-156>161-174.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Hernandez