301 
FXUS64 KFWD 300628
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
128 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- A Flood Watch is in effect for much of North and Central Texas
  through Friday morning.

- A couple strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along and
  west of the US-281 corridor Wednesday afternoon and evening.

- Much cooler weather is expected this weekend with continued
  clouds and scattered showers/storms lingering through Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

...Tuesday and Tuesday Night...

The rest of today and tonight will remain quiet across North and
Central Texas as upper-level ridging slowly shifts to the east.
Temperatures will remain above average with highs in the low to
mid-90s.

With the approach of the primary upper-level disturbance to the
west, surface cyclogenesis is expected in the southern High
Plains. As a result, the pressure gradient should tighten across
the region resulting in gusty winds of 15-25 mph.

...Wednesday...

By Wednesday, the primary upper-level disturbance will move from 
the Four-Corners Region into the southern Rockies. At the surface,
a low pressure center is expected to develop in the proximity of 
the Texas Panhandle before moving northeast into the Central 
Plains. A Pacific front will extend southward from the low- 
pressure into Central Texas. With strong forcing for ascent and 
substantial moisture in place (PWATs potentially exceeding 2 
inches), scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to 
develop in proximity to this frontal zone by the afternoon hours 
on Wednesday. 

There will be the potential for a couple strong to severe
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening primarily along and
west of the US-281 corridor. This will be owing to sufficient
deep-layer shear (30-40 knots) and modest instability (MLCAPE
1000-1500 J/kg). There will be localized areas with enhanced 0-1
km shear (especially in proximity to the stronger storms) with
shear magnitudes of 15-25 knots. However, the low-level shear
profile lacks curvature with 0-1km SRH generally 100 m2/s2 or
less. As such, though a tornado or two can't be ruled out in the
Big Country, this threat looks rather low at the moment. As such,
the primary hazards in any severe storm will be for large hail and
damaging winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

...Wednesday Night through Thursday Night...

Wednesday night widespread thunderstorms are expected along the 
nearly stationary frontal zone extending from the Texas Hill
country into Oklahoma. Storm motions will be nearly parallel the
surface boundary resulting in an increasing risk for flash
flooding throughout the overnight. This flooding threat will 
be maximized along and west of the US-281 corridor, though
isolated instances of flash flooding can't be ruled out closer to
the I-35 corridor by sunrise Thursday morning. By Thursday the
greatest flash flooding threat will shift more towards the I-35
corridor as training showers and thunderstorms continue to slowly
move east. By Thursday night, the upper-level disturbance will
lift to the northeast resulting in more scattered coverage of
showers and thunderstorms. While isolated instances of flash
flooding will still be possible (especially along and west of the
I-35 corridor), the flooding threat should generally start to
decrease by Thursday night. 

Wednesday night through Thursday night rainfall totals will be 1-3
inches for most. Isolated pockets of 4-6 inches of rain are
expected, especially between the I-35 and US-281 corridors. 

Temperatures will also finally dip below average due to the rain
and cloud cover in the area. Thursday highs will be in the 80s for
most with the increased cloud cover and rain in the area.
Locations that see the most persistent rain Wednesday night into
Thursday may remain in the 70s Thursday afternoon. Areas in and
around the Brazos Valley may once again warm into the low-90s as
rain will struggle to push eastward into these areas.

...Friday through Sunday...

Though the main upper-level shortwave will move well to the
northwest towards the Midwest and Great Lakes by this weekend,
weak troughing will remain over the southern Plains and Rockies.
At the surface, a weak frontal boundary will remain across the
region. There is uncertainty with how far south this boundary will
push, and what its evolution will be throughout the weekend.
Regardless, low-level forcing in proximity to this boundary along
with weak forcing for ascent on the leeward side of the
aforementioned upper-level trough will allow scattered showers and
non-severe thunderstorms to remain across North and Central Texas
this weekend. Rain chances will gradually decrease through Sunday
afternoon when medium-range guidance depicts a more substantial 
cold front moving through the region from north to south. Weak CAA
at the surface along with continued cloud cover and rain across
the region will also keep temperatures below average this weekend
with highs in the upper-70s and lower-80s.

...Monday Onward...

By Monday, medium range guidance has a much more fall-like airmass
in place across the region. Weak shortwaves embedded in
increasingly northwesterly flow aloft will bring several
reinforcing shots of cool fall air to much of the CONUS, of which
should make it as far south as North and Central Texas. This will
keep temperatures in the 70s and 80s and bring much drier (dew
points should fall into the 50s by mid-week next week). While 
this will allow for warmer afternoon highs than this weekend, 
overnight lows will be much colder in the upper-50s and lower-60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Concerns -- MVFR ceilings will arrive later this morning at all 
TAF sites. Afternoon convection may impact North Texas sites. 
The active weather will persist tonight through Thursday. 

The period of benign weather conditions is coming to an end as 
moisture continues to surge north this early Wednesday morning. 
MVFR ceilings are ongoing south of KACT, with a gradual northward
progress through the coming hours. Eventually, MVFR ceilings will
reach all of North Texas closer to 10z. The MVFR ceilings will 
likely persist through around 16z before lifting into the VFR 
category by the afternoon. 

Models continue to advertise the potential for a few storms 
within the D10 airspace this afternoon. Overall, expect coverage 
to remain scattered. Direct impacts to the individual terminals 
remains low, however, en route traffic may be impacted between 
21z Wed through 01z Thu. 

A window of minimal precipitation is expected this evening before
a more substantial line of thunderstorms slowly shifts east 
towards the I-35 corridor. This line will encroach on the D10 
airspace closer to 04z with direct impacts to TAF sites looking 
likely by 06z. Erratic winds will accompany the line of storms as 
they slowly move east. 

The unsettled weather pattern will persist through the rest of the
TAF period (and likely beyond) as waves of low clouds and
precipitation impact all TAF sites. 

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    94  74  84  71 /  40  80 100  80 
Waco                95  74  88  70 /  30  60  90  90 
Paris               93  73  86  68 /  10  30  80  90 
Denton              93  71  83  68 /  50  90 100  70 
McKinney            93  71  83  67 /  30  70 100  90 
Dallas              95  75  85  71 /  40  70 100  90 
Terrell             94  73  87  68 /  20  40  80  90 
Corsicana           94  73  89  69 /  20  20  80  90 
Temple              94  73  89  69 /  30  50  90  90 
Mineral Wells       91  69  83  66 /  60 100  90  50 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from this afternoon through Friday morning for 
TXZ091>094-100>105-115>121-129>134-141>146-156>161-174.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Darrah
LONG TERM....Darrah
AVIATION...Hernandez