032 
FXUS64 KFWD 290746
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
246 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- A significant pattern change will bring widespread showers and 
  thunderstorms to North and Central Texas Wednesday through 
  Friday.

- Widespread rainfall totals of 2 to 5 inches are expected, with
  locally higher amounts possible. 

- The threat for flash flooding will increase Wednesday afternoon
  through Thursday, particularly where heavy rain repeatedly 
  moves over the same area.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

A low-amplitude ridge axis will translate across the Southern 
Plains today, providing one final predominantly dry and hot day 
before a substantial pattern change begins Wednesday.

Increasing upper-level moisture will precede the approaching 
western trough, resulting in a steady canopy of cirrus through 
much of the day. This should do little to suppress temperatures, 
however, with highs once again reaching the lower and middle 90s.

The ridge axis will shift east this afternoon while pressure 
falls increase along the Front Range in response to the deepening
western system. The resulting tightening surface pressure 
gradient will strengthen southerly flow across North and Central 
Texas. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts approaching 30 
mph will become common during the afternoon.

Despite the Increasing moisture aloft, large-scale forcing for 
ascent will remain displaced well west of the region through 
today and tonight. Subsidence associated with the departing ridge
should therefore keep North and Central Texas precipitation-free 
through the evening and much of the overnight period.

Attention will turn west late tonight as the upper low advances 
toward New Mexico and deeper moisture begins spreading east. 
Initial showers and storms should remain west of the forecast 
area through most of the night, although precipitation may be 
approaching our western counties around daybreak Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

A much more impactful weather pattern will begin unfolding 
Wednesday as a deep upper low moves into New Mexico while 
anomalously rich tropical and Gulf moisture spreads northeast 
into the Southern Plains.

Rain chances will initially favor western North and Central Texas
Wednesday morning and afternoon, where the better overlap of 
moisture and large-scale ascent will reside. The main upper low 
will still be centered over New Mexico Wednesday afternoon, 
keeping the strongest forcing west of our area. As a result, 
daytime convection should remain isolated to scattered rather 
than widespread. A passing shortwave moving across the Texas 
Panhandle may provide enough ascent for pockets of showers and 
thunderstorms, but widespread heavy rain is not expected during 
the first half of Wednesday.

The environment changes considerably Wednesday afternoon and 
evening as a stronger shortwave with a more southerly trajectory 
approaches North and Central Texas. At the same time, a 
southwest-to-northeast oriented upper jet streak will advance 
into the Plains, placing North and Central Texas beneath 
increasingly favorable upper-level divergence. This will mark the
beginning of the more significant heavy-rain window. Precipitable
water values may exceed 2" across portions of North Texas, near 
record levels for late September. A 35-40 kt southerly low-level 
jet will remain established through Wednesday night, continuously
supplying warm and moist air into the region while maintaining 
strong moisture convergence beneath the increasingly favorable 
upper-level forcing.

By Wednesday night, surface low pressure will be located across 
Kansas while a dry slot begins advancing into the Texas 
Panhandle. The eastern edge of this dry air should sharpen into a
southwest-to-northeast oriented convergence axis separating the 
dry intrusion from the moist air to its east. This boundary may 
become an important focus for repeated thunderstorm development 
through the night.

Of particular note is the orientation of the mean flow nearly 
parallel to this boundary. Storms developing along the axis may 
repeatedly track over the same locations, while the persistent 
low-level jet continually replenishes moisture from the south. 
This setup will favor training convection and efficient rainfall 
production Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

A Flood Watch is in effect from Wednesday afternoon through 1 PM 
Thursday for much of North and Central Texas along and west of 
I-35. Widespread rainfall totals of 2 to 5 inches are expected, 
with locally higher amounts up to 8" possible where training 
becomes established. Rain should persist into Thursday morning 
while gradually progressing east. 

A relative minimum in precipitation appears increasingly 
plausible Thursday afternoon as the initial shortwave departs and
the first axis of stronger forcing shifts away from the region. 
This lull may be temporary as another shortwave is forecast to 
eject from the western trough Thursday night into Friday while 
another jet streak approaches. Parts of North and Central Texas 
may once again become favorably positioned beneath its right- 
entrance region, supporting another period of stronger ascent and 
renewed heavy rainfall.

Confidence in the placement of Thursday night's heaviest rain 
remains considerably lower, however. The evolution of Wednesday 
night and Thursday morning convection will likely modify the low-
level boundaries and determine where the richest moisture and 
instability are able to recover. Additional adjustments to the 
Flood Watch may become necessary as this secondary heavy-rain 
window becomes better resolved.

The mid-level trough is expected to remain slow-moving near New 
Mexico into Friday before only gradually progressing east. This 
will keep North and Central Texas beneath repeated waves of 
ascent within a post-frontal environment. Isentropic ascent over 
the cooler surface air will maintain periodic rain chances Friday
through the weekend.

Widespread heavy rainfall is not currently expected Saturday or 
Sunday, but periods of showers and embedded thunderstorms may 
affect outdoor activities. The cooler pattern will persist with 
afternoon highs generally in the mid 70s to mid 80s and overnight
lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

For North Texas, VFR conditions are expected to persist through 
the rest of today. Waco may experience a period of MVFR this 
morning before returning to VFR in the afternoon. 

Southeasterly winds around 5-10 kts early this morning will veer 
southerly after sunrise. Winds this afternoon will gradually 
increase to around 14-17 kts with occasional gusts closer to 22 
kts. High cirrus clouds will likely persist through much of of 
today, however, they will provide minimal impact to the region. 

Precipitation-free conditions will prevail today, however, rain
and storms will begin spreading east out of West Texas late this 
afternoon into tonight. Although this activity will remain well 
west of D10, some impacts to western arrivals/departs will be 
possible later today. 

A more complex weather pattern will begin to unfold on Wednesday.
Initial impact to area TAF sites will be the arrival of MVFR 
clouds across the region closer to sunrise Wednesday. Clouds will 
likely persist through the day with increasing rain chances late 
Wednesday. 

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    93  76  93  73 /   0   0  40  80 
Waco                93  75  94  74 /   0   0  40  70 
Paris               92  72  93  73 /   0   0  10  40 
Denton              93  74  93  70 /   0   0  30  90 
McKinney            93  72  92  70 /   0   0  30  80 
Dallas              94  77  94  75 /   0   0  30  80 
Terrell             94  73  94  72 /   0   0  20  50 
Corsicana           94  73  94  73 /   0   0  20  40 
Temple              94  72  95  72 /   0  10  50  70 
Mineral Wells       92  72  91  69 /   0   0  50 100 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon 
for TXZ091>094-100>104-115>120-129>134-141>145-156-157-159.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Hernandez