939 
FXUS64 KFWD 270802
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
302 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Above normal temperatures will continue through Tuesday with 
  highs generally in the 90s. 

- There will be periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms
  through Monday night. 

- An isolated severe weather threat will exist with any storms
  during the late afternoon and evening hours today and tomorrow.
  Small hail and gusty winds will be the main hazards.

- Confidence continues to increase in a wetter pattern beginning
  mid next week with periods of heavy rain and cooler weather
  through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

A mid-level ridge is currently building west into New Mexico, 
briefly placing North and Central Texas under a northwest flow 
regime aloft. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough is meandering through
the Central Plains. 

Today, a weak jet streak moving over the southern Rockies should 
accentuate the pressure trough across the southern High Plains 
and push its axis eastward, possibly inducing weak surface low 
development by the Sunday afternoon. With the help of diurnal 
heating, scattered thunderstorms should be able to develop mid-
afternoon along the pressure trough or along any subtle 
boundaries left over from last night's convection in the Big 
Country. The southeasterly mean flow will guide these storms into
parts of North and Central TX through the late afternoon and 
early evening hours. Areas along and west of I-35 have a better 
chance (30-40%) of seeing storms. While the overall severe threat
is low, a few storms may contain strong wind gusts, frequent 
lightning, and small hail.

The Central Plains shortwave will pivot around the building mid- 
level ridge and should move into Oklahoma tonight, weakening as 
it approaches. Lift from the shortwave should develop scattered 
showers across North TX overnight before winding down in the 
morning hours on Monday as the shortwave peters out. Isolated 
storms may develop across North TX during peak heating on Monday 
afternoon.

Temperatures in the short term will continue to be above average 
for late September, with highs in the 90s on Sunday and Monday 
and lows in the 70s. Winds will generally be light, becoming 
breezy on Monday afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens over
North and Central TX. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

The long-term portion of the forecast features one more day of 
well above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather before an 
active weather pattern takes place during the second half of the 
week. We're still looking at widespread rain and storm chances 
and cooler temperatures Wednesday through at least the first half
of the weekend. Periods of moderate to heavy rain are still on 
the forecast and we will expand more below. 

Tuesday: Expect another unseasonably hot day with mostly dry 
conditions as a ridge axis moves over our region ahead of a large
trough to our west. Afternoon highs will likely be in the mid to 
upper 90s with breezy southerly winds. Higher humidity will also 
result in heat index values a few degrees higher than the actual 
temperatures. A shower or two may sneak into our southern zones, 
but most of us will remain rain-free before rain chances begin to 
increase from west to east Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Wednesday through Next Weekend: Our attention remains on the mid 
to late week storm system, as it will align better with 
increasing moisture over the region. Overall, there's a good 
consensus that a closed low will slowly track eastward from the 
Four Corners into the southern Plains. Despite the uncertainty 
regarding the exact track and timing along with the surface low 
and cold front, multiple waves of widespread precipitation are 
forecast through the end of the week. Additionally, abundant 
moisture both near the surface (depicted by the forecast PWs 
greater than 1.5") and upper level Pacific moisture (associated 
with the remnants of Hurricane Polo) will help enhance the 
convection over Texas during this time period.

As a result, we could see the potential for heavy rain and 
flooding concerns across portions of North and Central TX. It is 
still to early to pinpoint the exact location of the heaviest 
precipitation each day, but it appears that the majority of the 
region will receive rainfall totals between 1-4" before the system
exits our region over the weekend. If the forecast under this 
pattern materializes, we could see some locations receiving 
significantly higher rainfall amounts. We will continue to refine
the details in the upcoming days, but it's important to highlight
the potential for some flooding concerns later in the week. 

Slightly cooler temperatures will also arrive alongside the rain 
and clouds with daytime highs in the lower to mid 80s Thursday 
through next Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

D10: Thunderstorms have the potential (~30% chance) to impact D10
airports late this afternoon and evening, primarily from 22-01Z. 
Storms are likely to first develop north and west of the D10 
TRACON, then move southeast toward the Metroplex; however, there 
is still uncertainty in how far storms will make it. Western D10 
sites have a better chance of being impacted. We are monitoring 
trends in the guidance and may consider replacing the PROB30 with
VCTS at Metroplex sites in future TAF cycles if confidence 
increases.

KACT: Confidence is higher that storms will remain west of Waco, 
but a future VCTS mention cannot be ruled out depending on trends
in guidance.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    95  75  95  76 /  20  20  20   0 
Waco                96  74  97  74 /  10  10  10   0 
Paris               92  69  91  70 /  20  20  20   0 
Denton              96  72  96  74 /  20  20  20   0 
McKinney            94  71  94  72 /  20  30  20   0 
Dallas              96  76  96  77 /  20  20  20   0 
Terrell             95  72  95  73 /  10  30  20   0 
Corsicana           94  73  95  73 /   0  10  10   0 
Temple              96  72  98  72 /  10  10   0   0 
Mineral Wells       97  70  96  72 /  30  20  20   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fenske
LONG TERM....Sanchez
AVIATION...Fenske