543 
FXUS64 KFWD 261044
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
544 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend with
  highs generally in the 90s. 

- A few thunderstorms may develop near Southeast OK or far Western
  North Texas this afternoon, but most of North and Central Texas 
  will remain dry.

- Confidence continues to increase in a wetter pattern Tuesday
  through the middle of the week. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 126 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

The upper-level pattern continues to undergo a gradual transition
early this morning as the persistent ridge is suppressed farther
south and troughing advances into the Plains. This will result in a
more zonal flow regime across North and Central Texas today before
northwest flow becomes established by Sunday.

For today, a shortwave moving east across the Southern Plains will
provide an increase in large-scale ascent through the afternoon.
The better overlap of forcing, instability, and deep-layer shear
should remain across Southeast Oklahoma and portions of northwest
Texas, where isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop during
peak heating. Some of this activity may approach our far
northwestern counties, but most of the forecast area should remain
dry.

Any storm that does develop near the northwest portion of the area
will reside within a moderately unstable and sufficiently sheared
environment for a stronger updraft or two. Marginally severe hail
or a strong wind gust cannot be ruled out, but sparse coverage and
the displacement of the better forcing should keep the overall
severe threat low.

Elsewhere, southerly to southeasterly winds will persist beneath a
steady stream of high cirrus. Temperatures will once again climb
into the lower and middle 90s. Humidity will remain manageable
enough that heat index values should generally remain close to the
actual air temperature.

Any convection near the northwest counties should weaken this
evening with decreasing instability. Another weak disturbance moving
through the increasingly northwesterly flow may support renewed
convection upstream across Oklahoma late tonight. There is some
potential for showers or storms to approach the Red River toward
daybreak Sunday, but confidence in how far south this activity
survives remains low.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 126 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Sunday will begin with a weak shortwave moving through the developing
northwest flow aloft. This feature, along with any remnant outflow
from overnight convection, may support a few showers and
thunderstorms during the morning hours across North Texas. Coverage
and duration will depend heavily on the organization of upstream
convection, with decreasing probabilities farther south toward
Central Texas.

Any morning activity should become less organized with time, though
a remnant boundary could serve as a focus for isolated redevelopment
Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, temperatures will remain above normal
with highs generally in the middle 90s.

A brief period of weak ridging will follow Sunday`s disturbance and
persist into Monday ahead of a much more substantial pattern change
to our west. This should allow temperatures to climb another degree
or two Monday, with mid and upper 90s more common across much of North
and Central Texas.

Attention then turns toward the eastern Pacific and an amplifying
trough over the western CONUS. Hurricane Polo is forecast to move
toward Baja California early next week before rapidly weakening as
it encounters the terrain of northwest Mexico. While Polo itself
will lose its tropical characteristics, a substantial plume of
tropical moisture is expected to survive and become drawn
northeastward toward the Southern Plains.

At the same time, the approaching western trough will provide both
additional moisture transport and increasingly favorable ascent.
Rain chances should begin increasing from west to east Tuesday
afternoon as leading disturbances encounter the deepening moisture
plume, with the more widespread rainfall currently favored Tuesday
night into Wednesday.

Confidence is increasing that a broad area of beneficial rainfall
will affect the Southern Plains during the middle of the week. The
largest remaining uncertainty is how the upper trough ultimately
interacts with the tropical moisture. Ensemble clustering generally
supports a slower trough lingering near the Four Corners, which
would maintain ascent and rich moisture across the region for a
longer period and favor greater rainfall totals. A faster and more
progressive trough remains possible and would still produce rain,
but would shorten the window for heavier or more widespread
precipitation.

Thus, confidence is considerably higher in the occurrence of rain
than in specific rainfall amounts or where the heaviest axis will
ultimately develop. These details should become clearer as the trough
and tropical moisture plume become better sampled over the next few
days.

Troughing may linger across the region beyond Wednesday, so low rain
chances will continue through the latter half of the week. Confidence
decreases substantially during this portion of the forecast and will
remain dependent on how quickly the upper trough progresses east.

Increasing cloud cover and precipitation should also bring a welcome
decline in temperatures during the middle and latter portions of the
week, with readings trending closer to late-September normals.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Continued VFR and south to southeasterly winds will persist across
the region today. Wind speeds will remain below 10 kts with mid
and high-level clouds continuing to stream from southwest to
northeast. 

Any storms that develop this afternoon will remain well northwest
of the D10 airspace. Although some impacts to UKW are possible, 
all precipitation will remain outside of D10 this afternoon. There
is a low potential outflow winds may approach North Texas 
terminals from the northwest, however, probability of this 
happening is low at this time. 

For Waco, expect continued southerly winds with VFR skies in
place. 


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    93  75  94  76 /   0  10  20  10 
Waco                94  72  96  74 /   0   0  10  10 
Paris               90  68  92  71 /   0  10  20  20 
Denton              93  72  95  73 /   0  10  20  10 
McKinney            92  70  94  72 /   0  10  20  20 
Dallas              94  75  95  77 /   0   0  20  10 
Terrell             93  70  95  73 /   0   0  20  10 
Corsicana           93  70  95  73 /   0   0  10  10 
Temple              94  70  96  73 /   0   0   0  10 
Mineral Wells       94  71  96  71 /  10  10  10  10 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Hernandez