894 
FXUS64 KFWD 240639
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
139 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Low thunderstorm chances continue this afternoon mainly across
  western North and Central Texas with gusty downburst winds 
  possible.
 
- Above normal temperatures and less humid conditions will prevail
  through the remainder of the week, with an elevated fire weather 
  threat on Friday due to low humidity.

- A more active weather pattern will take shape next week with a
  cold front and some rain chances arriving during the midweek 
  period. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 121 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Warm weather will continue today and tomorrow, with highs in the mid 
to upper 90s and morning lows in the 70s. Similar to yesterday, 
there is another round of isolated showers and thunderstorms 
expected across the western portions of Central Texas and into the 
Big Country. Any storm that can form against continued building of 
ridging and subsidence aloft will be short- lived, with gusty winds, 
brief heavy rain and occasional lightning being the main hazards. 
After sunset, storm coverage will quickly end, with a calm and mild 
night on tap. 

Friday, warm temperatures and a strong intrusion of low-level dry 
air will result in an elevated fire threat for most of the region. 
RH values in the 25-35% range will promote fuel drying, and while 
our easterly winds will remain fairly calm, grass fires due to 
dragging tow chains and other various sparking sources are possible. 
Otherwise, expect highs in the upper 90s with the typical diurnal CU 
cloud field developing into the afternoon and evening. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 121 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

By Friday night and Saturday, low-level flow will gradually 
transition from easterly to southerly thanks to a southward 
retreat of the upper ridge axis and the influence of a Central 
Plains shortwave. This will allow for modest low-level moisture 
return with dewpoints climbing back into the 60s. A richer plume 
of moisture to our west associated with multiple days of New 
Mexico and West Texas rainfall will also pivot slightly eastward, 
and this may allow low convective chances to resume as dissipating
activity encroaches on our northwestern zones late Friday night
and Saturday.

On Saturday night, a subtle disturbance within fairly weak 
northwest flow aloft should be sufficient to initiate convection 
upstream of the forecast area in Oklahoma. Recent guidance 
indicates the potential for a loosely organized convective 
cluster or complex to drift towards North Texas by Sunday morning,
and PoPs of 20% will be included to advertise the potential for
this activity to advance into North Texas. In addition, one or
more outflow boundaries from any such convection may push 
southward heading into the daytime, and with the upper ridge axis
displaced sufficiently far south, redevelopment of 
isolated/scattered convection would be possible with aid from 
diurnal destabilization later in the day. Despite the presence of 
residual cloud cover, high temperatures will still be able to 
climb several degrees above normal with low/mid 90s highs and heat
index values near the century mark prevailing through the 
weekend.

Medium range guidance remains in fairly good agreement on an 
increasingly amplified pattern shift through the first half of next 
week. This would set the stage for the first decent frontal 
passage of the season heading into the middle of next week. Such a
solution would offer rain chances to much of the area with the 
passage of this boundary, and ensemble guidance favors 
temperatures close to seasonal normals with highs in the 80s and 
lows in the 60s during the second half of next week. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 121 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

VFR will prevail through the period with a canopy of SCT/BKN
cirrus continuing to stream overhead. Winds have recovered to a
more uniform ESE direction following being interrupted by
convective outflows yesterday evening, and a light ESE wind of 10
kts or less should prevail through the period. Additional 
isolated convection is forecast across western North Texas and 
the Big Country later this afternoon, but this activity is 
expected to remain west of the airports at this time. 

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    95  72  94  74 /   0   0   0   0 
Waco                96  71  95  73 /   0   0   0   0 
Paris               90  64  90  69 /   0   0   0   0 
Denton              95  70  93  72 /   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            94  67  93  69 /   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              95  71  94  74 /   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             95  67  93  70 /   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           95  68  93  70 /   0   0   0   0 
Temple              97  71  96  71 /   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       95  69  94  70 /  10  10   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Davis
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley