058 
FXUS63 KFGF 232012
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
312 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances increase this evening and overnight, with many
  areas likely seeing beneficial rainfall overnight into
  Thursday morning. Additional rain chances are possible
  Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

...Synopsis...

South to southwest H5 flow prevails today, with surface winds out of 
the south to southeast. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are 
expected overnight as a shortwave moves along the flow pattern. Most 
areas should see wetting rains, with the heavier amounts being in 
west central Minnesota and southeast North Dakota. Heading into 
Thursday, H5 flow becomes northwesterly, with surface flow remaining 
out of the south to southeast. Weak shortwave ridging will support 
slightly warmer high temperatures in the low 70s on Friday. Heading 
into Saturday, a trough is expected to traverse southwest flow into 
the Northern Plains, bringing another chance for rain into the 
region. Ensembles are in reasonably good agreement regarding 
additional rain chances late Sunday through Tuesday in association 
with a cold front. At this time, this system carries the potential 
for much higher rainfall totals over this period, with currently a 
25 percent chance for 1 inch or more rain across much of eastern 
North Dakota and northwest Minnesota.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Southerly winds are expected to gust into the 20-30 kt range through 
this evening with the strongest winds from the Red River Valley and 
west. Starting tonight, winds will begin to decrease from west to 
east. Outside of the Devils Lake Basin, most locations can expect 
wind gusts in the 15-25 kt range Thursday.
Low ceilings are currently impacting eastern North Dakota. As 
showers and thunderstorms spread from west to east this evening and 
overnight, MVFR and IFR conditions will follow impacting all of 
Northwest Minnesota by around 09 Z Thursday. Reduced flight 
categories are expected to be mostly due to low ceilings.
The chance for thunder is 15-25% range across the region.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...LT