National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDFWD
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDFWD
Product Timestamp: 2026-09-23 18:09 UTC
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718 FXUS64 KFWD 231809 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 109 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Low thunderstorm chances continue this afternoon and Thursday afternoon mainly across western North and Central Texas with gusty downburst winds possible. - Above normal temperatures and less humid conditions will prevail through the remainder of the week. - An active weather pattern will return early next week with the return of rain chances across the region. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026 Not much change in the weather pattern is expected for the rest of today and tomorrow as an upper-level ridge remains centered over our region. At the surface, a weak surface boundary lingers over our western and southwestern counties, which will support a few showers and storms later this afternoon and evening. Similar to yesterday, the best coverage will remain far to our west, associated with the subtropical wave on the western edge of the upper ridge. Any rain or storms that develop over our western or southern counties should be short-lived, with the main threats being occasional lightning, gusty winds, and brief heavy rain. This activity will diminish after sunset, leading to a quiet and mild night. Expect another round of afternoon showers and storms on Thursday, mainly across our western zones where the remaining boundary lingers. Otherwise, we're still looking at highs mainly in the mid to upper 90s today and tomorrow and morning lows in the 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026 The extended portion of the forecast features warm and mostly dry conditions through the first part of the weekend, followed by increasing rain chances Sunday through midweek. Friday and Saturday: Easterly winds will continue on Friday, keeping the humidity values in check with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. The upper-level ridge will begin to expand and flatten over the weekend as a trough deepens over the West Coast. At the surface, the southerly winds will return on Saturday, pushing warmer air and some of the moisture back to the region. Highs will likely reach the mid to upper 90s across much of the area. Sunday Through Midweek: The first in a series of upper-level disturbances will travel across the central U.S. on Sunday. While the best forcing will remain to our north, a few showers and storms cannot be ruled out across our area Sunday through Monday. Extended guidance continues to advertise a stronger, deeper shortwave during the midweek period. Increasing moisture ahead of this system will help support more widespread precipitation Tuesday into Wednesday. Slightly cooler temperatures may also arrive alongside the rain and northerly winds. Time will tell if this delivers our first taste of fall weather! && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026 No significant aviation concerns expected through the period. VFR conditions will persist along with easterly winds AOB 10 kts. Isolated showers and storms are expected to develop again across portions of Central TX and the Big Country region this afternoon and evening. A brief shower/storm may approach the vicinity of KACT between 21Z and 03Z this evening, but chances remain around 20% or less to - too low to warrant a PROB30 group. Another round of isolated storms are expected Thursday afternoon mainly west and south of the TAF sites. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 95 72 94 / 10 0 0 0 Waco 76 96 71 95 / 10 0 0 0 Paris 67 90 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 74 95 70 93 / 10 0 0 0 McKinney 72 94 67 93 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 76 95 71 94 / 10 0 0 0 Terrell 72 95 67 93 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 74 95 68 93 / 10 0 0 0 Temple 74 97 71 96 / 10 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 73 95 69 94 / 10 10 10 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sanchez LONG TERM....Sanchez AVIATION...Sanchez