229 
FXUS64 KFWD 230700
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
200 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Low thunderstorm chances continue this afternoon mainly across 
  western North and Central Texas with gusty downburst winds 
  possible.
 
- Above normal temperatures and less humid conditions will prevail
  through the remainder of the week.

- An active weather pattern may return early next week with the
  return of rain chances across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 147 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Today's forecast looks very similar to yesterday's, with the
interaction between the stalled boundary draped over Central TX
and strong ridging/subsidence aloft serving as a focal point for 
ongoing isolated showers and thunderstorms. While this morning's 
convection will quickly die off after sunrise, continued moisture
advection along the stalled frontal boundary will promote 
isolated shower and thunderstorm redevelopment this afternoon 
across portions of Central TX into the Big Country area. While 
coverage is expected to be low, gusty winds, brief heavy rain and 
frequent lightning will be the main threat with any storm that can
form. Temperatures overall remain similar to yesterday, with 
highs in the mid to upper 90s. Daytime mixing will hopefully bring
some relief in the form of heat indices only a few degrees above 
our actual air temperatures, rather than the oppressive 105+ that 
has been the norm the past few weeks. 

Any ongoing showers and thunderstorms tonight will quickly die 
off after sunset, as the lingering boundary dissipates and the 
high pressure system overhead intensifies. Thursday's highs will 
be rinse and repeat, with mid to upper 90s region wide. With the 
continued building in of subsidence and dry air, any rain chances
look to be negligible for Thursday and onward. 

On a fun side note, yesterday at 7:05 PM CT marked the official 
start of astronomical fall for the Northern Hemisphere, where 
nights officially begin getting longer than our days! Now if only 
we could get a good cold front, then it truly would be pumpkin 
spice latte season...

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday) 
Issued at 147 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Dry air will continue to infiltrate within low-level 
east/northeasterly flow on Friday with dewpoints in the 50s and 
lower 60s. With anomalously strong mid-level heights still present 
overhead, the resultant subsidence will keep the area rain-free to 
end the workweek while temperatures remain about 10 degrees above 
normal. The upper ridge will begin to gradually break down heading 
into the upcoming weekend, as a couple of progressive Central Plains 
shortwaves shunt the ridge axis southward. This may allow for 
renewed shower and thunderstorm activity mainly northwest of the CWA 
on Saturday, but weak trailing ascent could result in scattered 
showers and thunderstorms in North Texas by Sunday. Low-level 
moisture content will also begin to recover during this time period 
due to strengthening low-level southerly flow and a more favorable 
fetch from the Gulf. 

Recent guidance has become increasingly consistent regrading a 
stronger Midwest shortwave trough and an attendant cold frontal 
intrusion during the Day 6-8 time period as we approach the middle 
of next week. This may end up being the first halfway decent fall 
cold front of the season, which could offer some rain chances while 
dropping temperatures to near normal values around the middle of 
next week. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 147 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period, while light 
northeast winds become more easterly later this morning. Isolated 
shower and thunderstorm activity is possible through the daytime 
today with coverage of about 10%, although most of this activity is 
forecast to remain west of the TAF sites. No precipitation mention 
is warranted at this juncture with such a low probability of 
occurrence at the airports. Sky cover will consist of some daytime
cumulus along with gradually increasing mid/high cloud cover 
arriving from West Texas. 

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    96  76  95  72 /  10   0   0   0 
Waco                96  75  97  71 /  20  10   0   0 
Paris               94  67  91  64 /   0   0   0   0 
Denton              96  73  94  69 /   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            96  71  94  67 /   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              97  76  95  72 /   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             97  72  95  67 /   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           97  74  95  68 /   0   0   0   0 
Temple              98  74  98  72 /  20  20   0   0 
Mineral Wells       96  72  95  69 /  20  10  10   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Davis
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley