409 
FXUS64 KMOB 221802
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
102 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1231 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

 - Isolated, mainly afternoon and early evening showers and 
   storms are possible Tuesday. A few storms could be strong with 
   gusty winds being the main threat. 

 - Above normal temperatures push heat indices into the 98-104 
   degree range through Wednesday.

 - A cooler and drier airmass moves into the area late this week
   into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Through Thursday...a closed upper low over the Florida Gulf coast 
has opened into a mean upper trough over the Southeast, shifts east 
as an upper high over the Southern Plains builds over the Southeast. 
A closed upper low meanders around over the northeastern Conus, and 
in combination with a surface low organizing off the East Coast, 
shifts a surface boundary north of the Southeast south over the 
region. The push initially is greater west of the Mississippi River, 
shifting a drier airmass southeast over the Southeast, and dropping 
precipitable h20 values around 2" over the forecast area southward. 
Guidance is advertising precipitable h20 level to the 1.4"-1.6" by 
Wednesday night and 1"-1.3" by Thursday night. In combination with 
the building upper ridge, isolated rainshowers and thunderstorms are 
expected Tuesday, with a dry Wednesday and Thursday. As with this 
time of the year, enough instability, both MLCapes (around 2500J/kg) 
and DCapes (700-A light, diurnally driven flow is expected through mid week. 
A cold front moving over area waters Wednesday night into Thursday 
will bring a more moderate northeasterly flow for the rest of the 
week into the weekend.
/161000J/kg) are enough for a few strong to marginally severe 
pulse type storms to be possible Tuesday. The surface low off the 
East Coast moves north along the East Coast though the end of the 
week as the upper low over the Northeast swirls south over the 
East Coast, bringing a cooler airmass (dare I say a cool front) to
go with the drier air that has moved over the Southeast.

Temperatures remain well above seasonal norms through mid week, with 
high temperatures in the 90 to 95 degree range Tuesday and 
Wednesday. The aforementioned cooler air begins to move southeast 
across the forecast area, with high temperatures Thursday ranging 
from the upper 80s over the northeastern half of the forecast area 
to low 90s southwest and near the coast. Heat indices in the 98 to 
104 degree range Tuesday and Wednesday drop into the 90-99 degree 
range Thursday as the cooler air combines with the drop in moisture 
levels. Low temperatures see the same drop, from low to mid 70s 
Tuesday night to mid 60s to around 70 Thursday night. 

Friday through Monday, the upper low over the East Coast swirls 
around for another day or two before organizing into a deep upper 
low over the Mid Atlantic coast and moving off. This shifts the 
upper high over the Southern Plains south over old Mexico. The drop 
in temperatures closer to seasonal norms remains through the 
weekend, with coolest temperatures being over the 
northeastern/eastern half of the forecast area.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, generally 
light flow over the Gulf will keep the rip risk low through mid 
week. A more moderate easterly flow sets up along the northern Gulf 
coast the end of the week into the coming week, bringing a moderate 
to high risk of rip currents in the coming weekend.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period. With plenty of
moisture and instability in place, scattered showers and storms 
are expected for most of the area from now through the evening 
hours. Once daytime storms end, winds are expected to calm 
overnight before yet another morning of northeast flow. 

/KL

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

A light diurnal flow prevails through Wednesday, with winds becoming 
onshore flow each afternoon then offshore at night. A light 
to moderate northeasterly flow develops Thursday and briefly becomes 
a bit stronger on Friday. Seas will be around 1 foot, then slowly 
build to 2 to 4 feet Thursday into Friday. Small craft may need to
exercise caution over the open Gulf mainly during Friday morning.
/29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      72  93  72  91 /  10   0   0  10 
Pensacola   75  92  75  90 /  10  10   0  10 
Destin      76  92  75  89 /   0  10   0  10 
Evergreen   69  93  68  89 /  10   0   0  10 
Waynesboro  70  93  67  91 /  10  10   0   0 
Camden      70  92  69  88 /  10   0   0  10 
Crestview   70  93  71  89 /  10   0   0  10 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$