157 
FXUS64 KFWD 221050
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
550 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Low thunderstorm chances continue this afternoon mainly across 
  Central Texas with gusty downburst winds possible. 
 
- Above normal temperatures and less humid conditions will prevail
  through the remainder of the workweek.
  

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

A weak surface front/trough remains draped through parts of North
Texas this morning, but will begin pivoting southwestward later 
today. Despite most of the area being positioned within  
northeasterly flow behind this boundary, temperatures will remain 
several degrees above normal for our first official day of fall 
with highs in the mid and upper 90s. Dewpoints will mix into the 
mid 60s by late afternoon, and this will keep heat index values in
the 97-102 degree range. While some convection is possible near 
the low-level confluent axis of the surface trough this 
afternoon, coverage of thunderstorms should be mitigated by a 
return to mid-level ridging and attendant subsidence aloft. We'll
carry low PoPs mainly from Central Texas northwestward into the 
Big Country with overall coverage unlikely to exceed about 20%. 
Given the large surface T/Td spreads and deeply inverted-V 
soundings, strong downburst wind gusts would once again be the 
primary hazard with any thunderstorm activity through the peak 
heating hours. Overnight lows will also be ~10 degrees above 
normal with readings in the low/mid 70s. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

The remainder of the workweek will feature hot and mostly rain-
free weather as a secondary push of dry air arrives within 
northeasterly low-level flow while the near-surface moisture axis
pivots into West Texas. The one exception may be across western 
North Texas where isolated convection could attempt to creep into 
our westernmost counties on Wednesday afternoon, but the majority
of the CWA will remain dry. Steadily building heights overhead 
will maintain above normal temperatures for the following few days,
but humidity will be low with dewpoints likely to mix into the 50s
through the end of the week. This will offer some minor relief 
from the persistent unseasonable heat, but unfortunately may also 
lead to a resurgence of elevated fire weather conditions through 
the late week period despite modest wind speeds. 

Some rain chances may resume from Sunday into next week as 
extended guidance begins to favor a more active weather pattern 
across much of the CONUS. A lead Central Plains shortwave may 
result in some low thunderstorm chances late in the weekend, with
perhaps a more significant breakdown of the ridge allowing for a 
frontal intrusion during the first half of next week. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 544 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with light 
north/northeast winds. There is a chance for isolated convection 
this afternoon mainly across Central Texas, but the expected 
coverage is too low to advertise in the Waco TAF at this time. All
TSRA activity is expected to remain south of the D10 TAF sites 
today. 

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    96  76  96  75 /   0   0   0   0 
Waco                97  74  98  75 /  20  10  10   0 
Paris               95  71  94  68 /  10   0   0   0 
Denton              95  74  96  71 /   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            95  73  95  69 /   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              97  77  97  75 /   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             97  74  96  70 /  10   0   0   0 
Corsicana           96  74  96  72 /  10   0   0   0 
Temple              98  74  99  74 /  30  20  10  10 
Mineral Wells       95  72  95  71 /  10   0  10   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley