National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDBOU
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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDBOU
Product Timestamp: 2026-09-22 06:06 UTC
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348 FXUS65 KBOU 220606 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1206 AM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated chances for showers/thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. - A disturbance moves through Wednesday and Thursday bringing increased chances for showers/storms and cooler temperatures Thursday. - Drier and warmer this weekend, but isolated chances for showers and thunderstorms in the evening are possible. && .DISCUSSION /Through Monday/... Issued at 124 PM MDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Satellite imagery shows a few patchy low clouds over the eastern Colorado plains and a quiet night ahead. Lows tonight will be in the low 50s at low elevations and 30s-40s for the mountains. Temperatures Tuesday afternoon warm up slightly but remain right at seasonal averages, with highs in the low 80s for the Denver metro. A shift to SW flow aloft will result in the return of monsoonal moisture for the mountains. As such, a few isolated showers and storms may develop over the high terrain late in the afternoon. The chance for showers over the Denver metro and east Colorado plains will remain very low (<20%). However, high-res model soundings do generally show inverted-V profiles which would indicate some potential for gusty winds (up to 35 mph) should any high-based/virga showers develop. Deterministic and ensemble global model solutions are in fairly good agreement that a mid-level disturbance will track north from New Mexico to Colorado on Wednesday. Just to the east, a ridge will continue to build over the Great Plains with an anticyclone centered over Oklahoma, which will encourage steady S-SE flow at the low levels. The bulk of the moisture is expected to be stationed over New Mexico and southern Colorado. However, PWs in the 1.0-1.3" range will still be advected over the much of our CWA east of the foothills. Such anomalous moisture this late in the season will be something to watch as a slight west or north shift in this setup would push the flash flooding threat into our area. At this time, it looks like the better chance for localized heavy rainfall in our area will remain over the east Colorado plains. For the Denver metro and I-25 corridor, Wednesday will likely still bring the best chance for scattered showers although the timing remains a bit uncertain. If dense cloud cover develops early in the day, this will limit instability considerably and lead to very isolated shower coverage. Regardless of cloud cover, there is a decent chance (55%) for at least a round or two of showers in the overnight hours as the right- entrance region of a jet streak provides additional forcing. West of the foothills, monsoonal moisture will be closer to seasonal values but still above normal, allowing for afternoon showers and storms to develop with daytime destabilization. Moisture at the low elevations will peak around Thursday morning and this is likely to limit instability for the day due to a low to mid level cloud deck and temperatures struggling to climb above the upper 60s. Such limited instability will decrease shower coverage Thursday afternoon although scattered showers are still likely over the high terrain and eastern Colorado plains. A weak shortwave will track through Colorado Friday afternoon and promote scattered showers and storms, mainly over the high terrain. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that Saturday and Sunday will be drier days with mostly sunny skies and temperatures running a few degrees warmer than normal. Uncertainty enters the picture early next week with some global model solutions suggesting an upper level trough or cut-off low, and others showing a return to ridging. Long-range ensembles do hint at a more amplified wave trend for next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday/... Issued at 1117 PM MDT Mon Sep 21 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all terminals through the TAF period. FEW-SCT mid-level clouds with bases 060-080 will continue through the morning. Current drainage flow will weaken closer to sunrise and become more southwesterly, with a period of light/VRB winds in the morning transiting to E and ESE flow near midday for all terminals. No changes have been made as far as PROB30 groups, with generally ISO to SCT SHRA coverage anticipated over the metro in the late afternoon and early evening (favoring 23-02Z, though potentially as early as 22Z). Most of this activity should be high-based, primarily presenting a gusty outflow threat. Expect a return to drainage flow in the evening. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AA AVIATION...BRQ
405 FXUS65 KBOU 220608 CCA AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1206 AM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated chances for showers/thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. - A disturbance moves through Wednesday and Thursday bringing increased chances for showers/storms and cooler temperatures Thursday. - Drier and warmer this weekend, but isolated chances for showers and thunderstorms in the evening are possible. && .DISCUSSION /Through Monday/... Issued at 1208 AM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026 Satellite imagery shows a few patchy low clouds over the eastern Colorado plains and a quiet night ahead. Lows tonight will be in the low 50s at low elevations and 30s-40s for the mountains. Temperatures Tuesday afternoon warm up slightly but remain right at seasonal averages, with highs in the low 80s for the Denver metro. A shift to SW flow aloft will result in the return of monsoonal moisture for the mountains. As such, a few isolated showers and storms may develop over the high terrain late in the afternoon. The chance for showers over the Denver metro and east Colorado plains will remain very low (<20%). However, high-res model soundings do generally show inverted-V profiles which would indicate some potential for gusty winds (up to 35 mph) should any high-based/virga showers develop. Deterministic and ensemble global model solutions are in fairly good agreement that a mid-level disturbance will track north from New Mexico to Colorado on Wednesday. Just to the east, a ridge will continue to build over the Great Plains with an anticyclone centered over Oklahoma, which will encourage steady S-SE flow at the low levels. The bulk of the moisture is expected to be stationed over New Mexico and southern Colorado. However, PWs in the 1.0-1.3" range will still be advected over the much of our CWA east of the foothills. Such anomalous moisture this late in the season will be something to watch as a slight west or north shift in this setup would push the flash flooding threat into our area. At this time, it looks like the better chance for localized heavy rainfall in our area will remain over the east Colorado plains. For the Denver metro and I-25 corridor, Wednesday will likely still bring the best chance for scattered showers although the timing remains a bit uncertain. If dense cloud cover develops early in the day, this will limit instability considerably and lead to very isolated shower coverage. Regardless of cloud cover, there is a decent chance (55%) for at least a round or two of showers in the overnight hours as the right- entrance region of a jet streak provides additional forcing. West of the foothills, monsoonal moisture will be closer to seasonal values but still above normal, allowing for afternoon showers and storms to develop with daytime destabilization. Moisture at the low elevations will peak around Thursday morning and this is likely to limit instability for the day due to a low to mid level cloud deck and temperatures struggling to climb above the upper 60s. Such limited instability will decrease shower coverage Thursday afternoon although scattered showers are still likely over the high terrain and eastern Colorado plains. A weak shortwave will track through Colorado Friday afternoon and promote scattered showers and storms, mainly over the high terrain. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that Saturday and Sunday will be drier days with mostly sunny skies and temperatures running a few degrees warmer than normal. Uncertainty enters the picture early next week with some global model solutions suggesting an upper level trough or cut-off low, and others showing a return to ridging. Long-range ensembles do hint at a more amplified wave trend for next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday/... Issued at 1117 PM MDT Mon Sep 21 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all terminals through the TAF period. FEW-SCT mid-level clouds with bases 060-080 will continue through the morning. Current drainage flow will weaken closer to sunrise and become more southwesterly, with a period of light/VRB winds in the morning transiting to E and ESE flow near midday for all terminals. No changes have been made as far as PROB30 groups, with generally ISO to SCT SHRA coverage anticipated over the metro in the late afternoon and early evening (favoring 23-02Z, though potentially as early as 22Z). Most of this activity should be high-based, primarily presenting a gusty outflow threat. Expect a return to drainage flow in the evening. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AA AVIATION...BRQ