399 
FXUS64 KFWD 220145
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
845 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Thunderstorm chances will continue through the evening with the
  arrival of a weak cold front. There will be a continued threat
  of strong to damaging downburst winds, as well as hail.  
 
- Above normal temperatures and less humid conditions will 
  prevail through the remainder of the workweek. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Scattered thunderstorm activity is ongoing across Central Texas
along an outflow boundary generated from this morning's 
thunderstorm complex in the Arklatex region. With strongly buoyant
parcels, vigorous updrafts have been able to develop, generating 
isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds. As this 
activity continues to move south, expect a similar threat through 
the next few hours. 

The true front is still lagging behind this activity with the
latest surface analysis placing the front just northwest of our
region. The front will continue to progress southward through the
rest of the afternoon with the potential for additional
thunderstorm development along the front. Similar to the
environment across Central Texas, there will be a threat for
strong to marginally severe storms capable of strong winds and
small hail. Overall, coverage should remain scattered, with 
probabilities around 20-30% across North Texas. Storm chances will
continue to shift south through the evening, gradually decreasing 
as daytime instability is lost. Most convection should dissipate 
tonight, leaving mainly dry conditions overnight. 

A drier airmass will begin filtering into North Texas on Tuesday
as northeast winds become established behind the front. The deeper
moisture axis will become displaced toward West Texas, 
substantially reducing rain chances across most of the forecast 
area. A few showers or storms may still develop Tuesday afternoon
near and west of HWY 281 where better moisture remains, but most 
locations will remain dry. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday) 
Issued at 156 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Predominantly dry weather is forecast from midweek onward as
building heights aloft maintain above normal temperatures, while
large-scale subsidence limits rain chances. A reinforcing push of
dry air in east/northeast flow will maintain low dewpoints in the
50s and lower 60s, and this will result in less oppressive late 
season heat with heat index values near or below ambient 
temperatures. Highs will still be in the 90s for most of the area 
through the extended forecast period, about 5-10 degrees above 
normal for the first week of astronomical fall. Another breakdown
of the ridge axis and weak frontal intrusion could occur sometime
late this weekend or early next week which would be the next 
mentionable opportunity for rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 841 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Convection largely remained away from the DFW Metroplex during 
the afternoon, but activity moving in from the northwest and 
convergence of multiple outflow boundaries led to an active past 
couple of hours. Will maintain VCTS through 03Z at all Metroplex 
TAF locations to account for dissipating convection, but all 
activity across Central TX dissipated a few hours ago. All 
activity will dissipate after 03Z with waning instability. 

Surface winds are currently being determined by outflow, which 
will should maintain steady north winds in the DFW Metroplex for 
another hour or so. Winds should then become light northeast 
around 03Z, and will likely remain as such through Tuesday outside
of anymore outflow-induced wind shifts. VFR can otherwise be 
expected overnight into Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms are 
possible Tuesday afternoon, mainly over Central Texas, but 
probabilities are too low to include in any of the TAFs at this 
time.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  95  75  95 /  30  10  10  10 
Waco                74  96  74  97 /  20  10  10  10 
Paris               71  94  71  93 /  20   0   0   0 
Denton              71  94  70  95 /  30  10  10  10 
McKinney            70  95  70  94 /  30  10  10   0 
Dallas              76  96  76  96 /  30  10  10  10 
Terrell             72  97  73  95 /  30  10  10  10 
Corsicana           73  97  74  96 /  20  10  10   0 
Temple              72  96  73  98 /  20  20  10   0 
Mineral Wells       68  93  69  95 /  30  20  10  10 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...30