210 
FXUS64 KFWD 201925
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
225 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Rain chances will continue through Monday with the arrival of a
  weak cold front. A few strong to severe thunderstorms with hail
  and damaging winds are possible later this afternoon and 
  evening mainly in North Texas.
 
- Slightly cooler temperatures with low rain chances will prevail
  through the middle portion of the workweek. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

The convective setup across North and Central Texas continues to 
evolve this early afternoon as a cold front remains well removed 
from our area but a shortwave continues to move towards North and 
Central Texas. Additionally, a sharp moisture gradient is now 
positioned just west of the I-35 corridor with surface dew points 
sharply falling as you progress west. This feature is providing a
focus for thunderstorm initiation as temperatures continue to 
warm this afternoon. 

The shortwave responsible for increasing large-scale ascent is 
just now beginning to approach from the west. The overlap of this 
forcing with the moisture gradient and strongly unstable airmass 
is favorable for additional showers and thunderstorms. 

Although overall deep-layer shear remains modest, with the 
available instability in place, multi-cell to loosely organized 
clusters will be the dominant convective mode this afternoon. 
Decently strong surface dew point depressions will increase the 
risk for strong to damaging winds with any vigorous convection. A 
few instances of hail cannot be ruled out, with expected maximum 
hail size closer to 1". 

The overall evolution of this afternoon's convection is somewhat 
uncertain. Regardless of the convective development this 
afternoon, large scale forcing will remain atop the region through
the night. If the storms this afternoon become cold-pool 
dominant, sufficient subsidence may be in place to reduce 
tonight's rain chances. However, if storms remain more 
isolated/scattered in nature, another round of showers/storms may
move in from Oklahoma late tonight into early Monday morning. 
Given the relative minimum in instability overnight, this activity
is not expected to be severe, however, gusty winds and lightning 
will be possible. 

The cold front itself will finally begin making more meaningful 
southward progress late tonight into Monday. By Monday, the front 
and any remnant outflow boundaries should provide more defined 
focus for renewed thunderstorm development. Exactly where these 
boundaries settle will dictate the corridor of highest rain 
chances. At this time, the highest probability of rain tomorrow 
will be along and south of the I-20 corridor. Areas along and 
south of the front will experience the most unstable air and will 
likely see the highest coverage in precipitation. Storm threats 
will once again include lightning, gusty winds, and small hail. 

Convection should gradually diminish Monday evening as 
instability wanes, through isolated showers and storm may linger 
near the stalled frontal zone across Central Texas. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

A reinforcing cold front will arrive early Tuesday, helping to
keep temperatures in the lower to mid 90s through much of next
week. The hottest weather will continue to be across the Brazos 
Valley, where upper 90s are expected. A few additional showers and
storms will be possible along the boundary in Central Texas, 
however, coverage will likely at or below 20%. 

Mid-level ridging will gradually rebuild during the middle and
latter portions of the week, resulting in decreasing rain chances
and a slight increase in afternoon temperatures. Highs will remain
in the lower to mid 90s across North Texas with upper 90s in
Central Texas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Concerns -- Thunderstorms developing west of D10, moving towards 
D10 later this afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds possible. 

VFR and southerly winds are ongoing at this time across all TAF 
sites, however, storms have now developed west of D10 and will 
continue moving to the east/northeast. As we continue through the 
rest of the afternoon, convective potential within D10 will 
increase with storm chances peaking between 00z to 03z. Confidence
in storms impacting any of the North Texas TAF sites has 
diminished as the highest likelihood of precipitation is likely to
be just to the north of the terminals. The overall evolution of 
this afternoon's thunderstorm activity will influence any 
overnight rain chances as a cold front in Oklahoma generates 
additional storms to the north. 

The cold front will eventually move through North Texas TAF sites
tomorrow afternoon, bringing weak northerly winds along with a 
renewed potential for precipitation. Timing for tomorrow will 
continue to be refined as there is still some uncertainty on the 
overall placement of the front. 

Regardless, expect VFR ceilings to persist through this TAF cycle
given a dry low-level atmosphere in place. 

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  93  75  93 /  40  30  10  10 
Waco                75  95  74  96 /  20  30  10  20 
Paris               73  90  72  93 /  40  30  10  10 
Denton              71  93  71  92 /  50  30  10  20 
McKinney            72  93  71  93 /  50  30  10  10 
Dallas              77  94  76  94 /  40  30  10  10 
Terrell             74  94  73  95 /  30  30  10  10 
Corsicana           75  94  74  96 /  20  40  10  10 
Temple              74  94  73  96 /  20  20  10  20 
Mineral Wells       68  94  68  91 /  40  30  30  20 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Hernandez