515 
FXUS61 KCLE 201217
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
817 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Although precipitation chances linger, have opted to lower QPF 
totals over the next 36 hours to better reflect the dwindling 
chances for thunderstorms and associated heavy rain tonight. Some 
embedded thunderstorms are possible Sunday with the cold front. 
General totals should be between 0.3-0.8 inches in most places with 
the heaviest axis of precipitation now just to the southwest of the 
CWA.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Shower coverage should gradually increase this morning before 
becoming more widespread today. Isolated thunderstorms today may 
bring locally heavy rainfall which could result in isolated flooding 
concerns. The axis of heaviest precipitation extends from near 
Toledo towards Mount Vernon and areas west. 

2) First taste of fall arrives this week with periodic rain chances, 
especially on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... 
In previous forecasts, a warm front was expected to push north of 
the area late Saturday, however looking at recent surface analysis 
this boundary appears to have stayed south of the area. As a result, 
the bulk of heavy precipitation has remained out of the area with 
the highest totals reaching Toledo at almost 1" so far. This warm 
front may nudge a bit more north today as a low pressure system 
moves along it towards the CWA. This cold front will move a cold 
front across the area this afternoon. As a result, there remains an 
elevated potential for heavy rainfall, especially within any 
thunderstorms that develop, however the widespread heavy rain is no 
longer expected as the primary precipitation mode should remain more 
stratiform tonight. As a result, have opted to lower QPF with this 
forecast package to generally be 0.3-0.8 inches of precipitation 
with a higher axis around 1 inch extending from Toledo southeast 
towards Mount Vernon. Some of these areas have already received a 
decent bit of rain on Saturday which will result in saturated 
antecedent conditions. However, given recent low levels on area 
rivers and the more stratiform type of precipitation the area should 
mostly handle the additional rainfall. Overall, today will be quite 
a dreary day and will also mark the transition into a week of fall 
like conditions. Highs today will climb into the upper 60s across 
northern counties and into the mid to upper 70s across southern 
counties. Overnight lows should drop into the low to mid 50s with 
the exception of portions of NWPA which may even see temperatures 
fall into the 40s. 

KEY MESSAGE 2... 
As the system today departs east, a Canadian high pressure will 
nudge south across much of the Great Lakes region while a surface 
trough linger across the Ohio Valley. The placement of these systems 
will leave the CWA right in the middle. This positioning will allow 
for a cooler airmass to arrive and high temperatures fall into the 
60s this week with overnight lows in the 40s to 50s. Chances for 
precipitation on Monday should be isolated to the far southern 
counties, but shower potential ramps back up on Tuesday and 
Wednesday as an upper level shortwave trough moves east, nudging the 
surface high north and providing support for the potential 
development of additional showers. This high will push back south 
for the end of the work week. In addition, the positioning of the 
area on the gradient between the trough and high pressure will 
result in breezy conditions this week with the strongest winds 
expected along the I-75 corridor.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Broad low pressure extends from Central Illinois to Central 
Ohio with a stalled frontal boundary in place. Widespread rain
in moving into the I-75 corridor this morning and will continue
east today, impacting most terminals at some point. The better
axis for thunderstorms is located from northern Indiana to
Central Ohio so did not include thunder in any of the TAFs but
will update if thunder looks possible, mainly at FDY/MFD/CAK.
Ceilings are trending towards IFR/LIFR and are expected to be 
IFR for most of the day while more variability is expected to
visibility with showers passing. Some improvement to MVFR is 
expected after 00Z at CLE/YNG/ERI as high pressure builds to 
the north and drier low level air starts to sneak in. Inland
terminals may see another round of showers late tonight and will
need to consider adding with the next package.

Light and variable winds will transition to northerly today as
the stalled front settle south. Winds at some terminals may
exceed 10 knots this evening with gusts to 20 knots also
possible with increasing northeast flow on Lake Erie.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with showers and occasional
thunderstorms through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
A low pressure system is expected to move northeast along a stalled 
boundary that remains south of Lake Erie. This will initially allow 
for winds to remain from the north-northeast at 5-10 knots through 
this afternoon. As this low shifts east and moves a cold front 
across the area, winds will begin to ramp up from the northeast to 
20-25 knots in the western basin tonight. This will initially allow 
waves to build to 4-6 feet. On Monday morning, Lake Erie will fall 
under a gradient between a Canadian  high to the north and a surface 
trough across the Ohio Valley. As a result, winds are expected to 
quickly ramp up on Monday to be sustained at 20-30 knots from the 
northeast. This increase in winds will result in waves building to 5-
7 feet, approaching 10 feet at times. These strong winds are 
expected to persist through at least Wednesday before the high is 
able to push further south on Thursday and allow for a transition to 
calmer conditions. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory has been 
issued for the southern lakeshore of Lake Erie beginning tonight 
through Wednesday evening. Given the elevated wave heights and 
strong winds, there is an increase in rip current potential so a 
Beach Hazards Statement has also been issued. These conditions are 
expected to be very dangerous and people should avoid going onto the 
lake for the start of this week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement from this evening through Wednesday 
     evening for OHZ003-007-009>011.
     Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through Wednesday 
     evening for OHZ012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement from Monday morning through Wednesday 
     evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 PM EDT 
     Wednesday for LEZ142>146.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Monday to 10 PM EDT Wednesday 
     for LEZ147-148.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for 
     LEZ149.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...10
MARINE...04