742 
FXUS64 KMOB 200744
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
244 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

...New MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 244 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

 - Scattered, mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms are
   expected Sunday into the beginning of next week. A few storms
   could be strong with gusty winds being the main threat. 

 - Above normal temperatures push heat indices into the 100-106
   degree range through the beginning of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

The upper high that gave us dry weather over the past few days is 
weakening over the southern Great Plains. Meanwhile, a upper low 
continues to retrograde and is currently near the western coast of 
Florida giving the area enhanced northeasterly flow overhead. The 
center of the upper low will continue off the coast of Florida and 
will slightly strengthen through the the rest of the weekend. The 
upper low is aiding in increasing PWATs back above normal thanks 
to easterly flow funneling in Atlantic moisture. A more typical 
daily precipitation pattern is expected for Sunday through 
potentially Tuesday bringing isolated to scattered storms over the
marine areas in the morning then moves inland for the afternoon 
with the highest coverage closer to the coast.

The upper low gets reabsorbed into the mean flow a little quicker
by Tuesday which would allow for the ridge to try and build back 
into the area from the west and a slow moving potential cold front
by mid to end of next week. Pops largely decrease by Tuesday into
Wednesday with just some isolated chances where there is some 
increased convergence/moisture along the afternoon seabreeze, 
which with northerly surface flow, this feature would be more 
pinned to the coast than typical. We switch into northwest flow 
which drops PWATs back below normal to 1.2-1.5 inches by Thursday
and into next weekend dropping off our precipitation chances.

The area will continue to have above normal temperatures through mid 
to late next week. Expect highs in the mid to upper 90s inland and 
low 90s along the immediate coast. Afternoon dewpoints should be in 
the upper 60s to low 70s for most inland areas, potentially even the 
mid 60s in southeast Mississippi where the highest temperatures are 
expected Sunday and Monday. Heat indices stay below advisory 
criteria in the 100-106 range through Wednesday even with the 
temperatures being well above normal. The area still gets some 
overnight relief even with low temperatures above normal in low 70s 
inland and the mid 70s along the immediate coast. The previously 
mentioned potential cold front towards the end of next week would 
definitely be a welcomed sight after such a warm September so far.
Something to watch, but this would bring temperatures/humidity down 
and put low temperatures back into the mid to upper 60s.

...BEACH FORECAST...

For the beaches in southern Alabama and the northwest Florida 
Panhandle, the rip current risk is LOW through mid next week and 
surf heights remain generally 1 to 2 feet outside of any storms. 
Guidance shows marine winds increasing by the Wednesday/Thursday 
timeframe which would increase the rip current risk and surf heights 
for mid to end of next week.

SS/97

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and storms develop Sunday afternoon
over the southern half of the area then linger into the early
evening before dissipating. MVFR conditions will be possible with
the stronger showers and storms with VFR conditions otherwise
anticipated. Calm or light and variable winds overnight become
light northwesterly or northerly Sunday morning, with a switch to
a southeasterly flow at 5-10 knots near the coast in the 
afternoon. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

A mainly light diurnal flow prevails through Wednesday with winds 
trending to an onshore flow each afternoon then offshore at night. A 
moderate to occasionally strong northeasterly flow develops late 
Wednesday night into Thursday morning and continues into Thursday 
night. Seas will be 1 to 2 feet, then increase to 2 to 3 feet on 
Thursday. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      94  73  93  73 /  30  10  40  10 
Pensacola   92  76  91  76 /  50  30  30  20 
Destin      89  76  90  76 /  40  30  30  20 
Evergreen   95  70  95  68 /  20  20  30  20 
Waynesboro  97  71  96  69 /  10  10  30  20 
Camden      95  72  95  70 /  10  10  30  20 
Crestview   93  70  93  70 /  50  30  30  20 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$