856 
FXUS64 KFWD 200555
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1255 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Rain chances return today and Monday with the arrival of a weak
  cold front. A few strong to severe thunderstorms with hail and
  damaging winds are possible this afternoon and evening mainly in
  North Texas.
 
- Slightly cooler temperatures with low rain chances will prevail
  through the middle portion of the workweek. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

The short term forecast period will feature decent chances for
showers and thunderstorms across parts of North Texas from this 
afternoon into tonight with an approaching weak cold front and 
mid-level shortwave. These features are responsible for ongoing 
overnight convection well northwest of the forecast area as of
midnight, although this activity along with its approaching 
cirrus canopy are a harbinger of our own storm chances later 
today. The upper ridge axis that brought hot and dry weather the 
past several days has begun to break down and shift 
southeastward, allowing mid-level height falls to spread overhead.
This ascent could result in isolated showers and thunderstorms in
our west/northwest zones as early as mid-morning, but deeper 
convection will be delayed until mid/late afternoon when 
destabilization along the upstream surface front aids in 
initiation. 

With a very unstable but modestly sheared warm sector in place
south of the surface boundary, convective mode should initially
consist of scattered single or multicell clusters which should 
produce strong cold pools, likely leading to loosely organized 
linear segments with time which will surge southeastward through  
portions of North Texas. Strong/damaging wind gusts will be the 
main concern from any more robust convection, but a few instances 
of marginally severe hail are also possible. Overall, expect
coverage of 40-60% across the northwest tapering to 20-40% through
the DFW Metroplex and I-20 corridor later in the evening. The 
intensity of convection should tend to wane after sunset with loss
of heating and increasing MLCIN, but the synoptic sources of lift
should be sufficient to sustain some scattered less robust 
convection into the overnight hours. 

The presence of the surface cold front as well as any residual
outflow boundaries will lead to additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Monday which should peak with daytime heating.
The front will likely be stalled through parts of North Texas 
with the greater instability confined to Central Texas, and areas 
south of I-20 should have the greater storm chances through 
Monday afternoon and evening as a result. Downburst wind gusts 
would once again be of concern with any activity through this time
period. Areas behind the front may only see high temperatures 
reach the upper 80s due to a combination of slightly cooler air 
behind the boundary along with increased cloud cover. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Slightly cooler and drier weather is likely to prevail into the 
midweek period as drier east/northeast low-level flow persists 
behind the front. Some low chances for showers and storms may 
continue in the vicinity of the old frontal boundary with weak 
ascent and moisture advection resuming, but mid-level ridging 
should tend to build overhead with time keeping most of the area 
dry and subsident. Highs should mostly be in the lower 90s through
this time period with dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s. 
While still above normal, these temperatures will offer modest 
relief from an exceptionally hot first half of the month as we 
officially move into astronomical fall. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

The main concern for the TAF sites through the period will be
convective chances from late this afternoon into tonight.
Scattered thunderstorms should develop well northwest of the TAF
sites after ~21z this afternoon and quickly push southeastward
with convective outflow boundaries. The most likely time period
for the D10 airports to be affected will be roughly from 23-05z,
although convective coverage immediately near the airports 
remains uncertain. Even if storms do not occur directly at the TAF
sites, impacts due to gusty northwest outflow winds appear fairly
likely, and the Bowie and/or Bonham cornerposts may also be 
affected through the evening hours. Outside of convective 
impacts, a south wind will prevail with a steadily thickening 
cirrus canopy through today. 

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    96  78  96  74 /   0   0  10  40 
Waco                98  77  97  76 /   0   0   0  20 
Paris               96  72  96  70 /   0   0   0  30 
Denton              96  76  96  71 /   0   0  20  50 
McKinney            96  75  96  72 /   0   0  10  40 
Dallas              97  79  97  74 /   0   0  10  40 
Terrell             96  74  96  72 /   0   0   0  30 
Corsicana           94  73  97  74 /   0   0   0  20 
Temple              97  75  96  75 /   0   0   0  10 
Mineral Wells       96  76  96  71 /   0   0  40  60 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley