506 
FXUS64 KFWD 190600
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
100 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- An elevated fire weather threat will continue today across much
  of North Texas with low humidity and southerly winds of 10-15 
  mph.

- Rain chances return from Sunday into Monday with the arrival of
  a weak cold front. A few strong thunderstorms with hail and 
  wind threats are possible Sunday afternoon and evening.
 
- Slightly cooler temperatures with low rain chances will prevail
  through the middle portion of the workweek. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Saturday Night) 
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

A stout upper-level high pressure center remains anchored 
overhead which will lead to another afternoon of near-record 
temperatures in the upper 90s to around 100. Aggressive mixing of 
dewpoints into the upper 50s and lower 60s will keep heat index 
values near or even a touch below ambient temperatures again 
today, with no heat headlines necessary. The main story through 
the short term will be an elevated wildfire threat, as low 
humidity combines with slightly stronger southerly wind speeds of 
10-15 mph. With dry fuels from worsening drought conditions, extra
care should be taken to avoid sources of wildfire ignition. A 
Grass Fire Danger Statement has been issued to highlight this  
concern. Today could also be the last opportunity for DFW and 
Waco to add to the 100 degree tally this year, as increasing cloud
cover, convective chances, and the arrival of a weak front are 
likely to hold temperatures to the low/mid 90s for much of the 
extended forecast period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday) 
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

By Sunday morning, a shortwave trough traversing the Central 
Plains will lead to a breakdown and southeastward shift of the 
upper ridge axis. This will open the door for convective chances 
to end the weekend and begin the workweek. Some high-based showers
could enter parts of Northwest Texas as early as Sunday morning 
as mid-level ascent from this shortwave arrives. However, greater 
chances for deep convection will be delayed until later Sunday 
afternoon and evening until a weak frontal boundary sags towards 
the Red River and results in scattered surface-based convection 
within a very unstable and modestly sheared prefrontal warm 
sector. Storms will likely initiate upstream of the forecast area 
during peak heating roughly from the Big Country northeastward 
into Texoma, and will have a tendency to propagate southward along
outflows. Some loosely organized convective clusters or small
linear segments will be a possibility with attendant marginally 
severe hail/wind hazards on an isolated basis in North Texas. 
Overall, convective coverage is forecast to be roughly 30-50% at 
this time. While intensity of convection will tend to wane through
the evening with loss of heating, shortwave ascent along with 
lift from the nearby front could sustain isolated convective 
activity overnight into early Monday morning.

Additional convective redevelopment is likely to occur on Monday
with aid from diurnal heating along the residual weak frontal 
zone as well as any lingering outflow boundaries present from 
Sunday evening's convection. It seems most likely that this would
be near or south of I-20, although the locations of these 
boundaries will not be known with any certainty until Monday 
morning. Strong downburst winds would be possible with daytime
thunderstorms as temperatures climb to the low/mid 90s near and 
south of the boundaries.

A secondary Plains/Midwest trough will send a reinforcing front
southward into North Texas by Tuesday. This front will also be
devoid of significantly cooler air, but will advect lower
dewpoints into the area through the midweek period. Temperatures
should be closer to seasonal normals through the middle and end 
of the workweek, but may still be slightly above average as we 
officially enter astronomical fall. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with SSE winds
around 10 kts. A few gusts up to 20 kts are possible this 
afternoon. Diurnal cumulus around 7 kft can be expected, along 
with a gradual increase in cirrus later today. 

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    98  77  99  78 /   0   0   0   0 
Waco                97  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0 
Paris               98  72  98  72 /   0   0   0   0 
Denton              97  75  99  76 /   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            97  74  98  74 /   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              98  78 100  79 /   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             97  72  99  73 /   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           95  72  97  73 /   0   0   0   0 
Temple              95  72  99  73 /   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       97  72 100  73 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley