409 
FXUS63 KFGF 182008
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
308 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain comes to an end this evening, with patchy fog and drizzle
  overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

...Synopsis...

Ongoing rain showers across our southern FA are slowly waning as an 
area of low pressure well to our south continues to track east. In 
these showers wake, stratus and drizzle will likely persist into the 
evening and overnight hours. Meanwhile up north in southern Canada, 
a cold front is tracking towards the region. This cold front will 
pass through slowly from north to south on Saturday. Timing of
the front looks to keep high temperatures near 70 degrees area 
wide Saturday afternoon, and then in its wake drop to become a 
bit cooler, in the 60s for Sunday. Temperatures will remain a
bit cooler early in the week, as lower heights due to a weak 
upper level low pushing from the Northern Rockies late Saturday 
to the Great Lakes by early Tuesday will keep temperatures 
around or just a few degrees below average. As the week wears 
on, guidance suggests that either weak upper level ridging 
builds in or zonal flow aloft takes control. In either scenario,
temperatures will be near or a few degrees above average. This 
leads to highs in the 70s most afternoons Wednesday through 
Friday. Precipitation chances will be tied to the strength of 
the ridge and where we end up in relation to the ridge axis. If 
we remain on the periphery of the ridge or in more zonal flow, a
few weak waves may track through the region bringing low 
chances for precipitation. Meanwhile, if the ridge is a little 
stronger and is more or less centered of the Red River Valley, 
precipitation chances will remain very low.

...Rain Today, Fog/Drizzle Tonight...

Rain is slowly ending from west to east across southern reaches of 
the FA. In its wake, several observation sites are reporting 
drizzle. Soundings show saturation up to 2 Km in depth persisting 
into tonight with sufficient low level lift. Therefore, patches
of drizzle and fog will remain a concern into Saturday morning.
It is uncertain when stratus and drizzle will burn off Saturday
morning, as for the most persistent locations (which are
currently favored to be in far southeastern ND), it may take 
until the drier air behind the cold front comes through during 
the afternoon hours.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

The main concern today into tonight will be the expansion of
MVFR to IFR ceilings. MVFR is already impacting KDVL and KFAR. 
This will continue throughout the afternoon hours. By late 
afternoon into the evening, MVFR will expand northward into all 
remaining terminals, eventually turning into IFR. IFR will 
persist into Saturday morning. A few gusts of up to 20 knots are
possible this afternoon. Once clouds set in and the sun sets, 
winds will decrease substantially overnight, becoming variable
at under 5 knots. Fog and drizzle may also develop as ceilings 
lower overnight, but predictability in these hazards remains 
low at this time for any one terminal.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...Rafferty