320 
FXUS64 KFWD 171901
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
201 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- There is a 10% chance of very isolated, brief, and light rain
  showers this afternoon.

- Elevated fire weather concerns will continue into this weekend,
  particularly along and west of the I-35 corridor.

- Slightly cooler weather with low (20-30%) rain chances return
  late Sunday into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

A strong mid-level ridge currently centered over the Lower 
Mississippi Valley will slide westward toward North and Central
TX, moving overhead by Friday afternoon. As a result, high 
temperatures will continue to be well above average in the short 
term, climbing to the upper 90s to near 100 degrees each afternoon 
through Saturday due to deep mixing and mostly sunny skies.

Early this afternoon, satellite imagery showed a band of more
robust cumulus development arcing from near Killeen to near 
Greenville along a subtle axis of higher low-level moisture. Over 
the next few hours, very isolated showers have a low chance (~10%)
of developing along and east of US-377, particularly where this 
moisture axis lies. However, subsidence from the approaching ridge 
will make the environment increasingly unfavorable for deep 
convection as the afternoon progresses. 

On Saturday, a shortwave moving over the southern Rockies will 
support lee cyclogenesis, tightening the pressure gradient over 
North and Central TX; meanwhile, drier air should push in from the 
east beginning Friday night. Therefore, breezy, hot, and dry 
conditions are expected, raising fire weather concerns for 
Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

We should have another hot day Sunday, but the long-advertised
cold front will finally be working its way south through the 
Central Plains. A weak low pressure system should develop over 
OK/KS Sunday afternoon with an attendant cold front extending out 
the southwest side of the low. Almost all meduium-range guidance 
keeps this front well to our west and north during the day Sunday.
This is important to note because by mid to late Sunday afternoon, 
we expect showers and thunderstorms to develop along the boundary.
Although the initial convective development should be outside of 
our forecast area, the airmass these storms will be developing in 
will have a high propensity to develop strong cold pools. As we 
head in the evening and overnight hours, there may be enough low-
level inflow to sustain a few cold-pool driven storms or even a
nocturnal MCS that moves into portions of North Texas Sunday
evening and night. The chances of this are about 20-30%.

Regardless of late Sunday convective activity, the cold front
should sag far enough south to help trigger isolated to scattered 
showers and storms Monday and Tuesday next week--largely in the 
vicinity of the front. So where will the front be next week? 
There are still uncertainties in the guidance regarding how far 
south it can get and even more uncertainty regarding how cool the 
airmass behind the front will be. For the most part, the guidance 
is in agreement that the front will move into North Texas (evident
by a northerly wind shift) by Monday and stall near Central Texas
by Tuesday. This should bring 20-30% PoPs to most of the region 
Monday and/or Tuesday and knock daytime highs from near triple 
digits into the mid 90s.

Recent guidance has also started to indicate the potential for
east to northeast surface winds sticking around through the 
middle to late parts of next week. The northeast flow appears to 
be a response to a broad area of low pressure developing in the 
Gulf and a strengthening high pressure system over the upper 
Midwest. If this were to occur, it would keep high temps in the 
low to mid 90s despite our high confidence that the mid-level
ridge will resurge overtop of the Southern Plains. As it stands 
right now, there is a 40% chance that highs remain below 95 from 
Wednesday onward for most of North Texas and only a 20-30% chance 
for Central Texas. If the mid-level high wins out (60% chance for 
North Texas and 70-80% chance for Central Texas) highs will 
continue to be in the mid to upper 90s for all of next week.

Bonnette

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the 
period. 5-10 KT winds will take a more southeasterly component
this afternoon before returning to southerly after midnight.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    80 100  77 100 /   0   0   0   0 
Waco                76  99  73  99 /   0   0   0   0 
Paris               76  99  72  99 /   0   0   0   0 
Denton              77 100  75  99 /   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            78  99  74  99 /   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              80 100  77 100 /   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             76 100  72 100 /   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           75  99  72  98 /   0   0   0   0 
Temple              74  99  71  99 /   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       75  99  72 100 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fenske
LONG TERM....Bonnette
AVIATION...Fenske