621 
FXUS64 KFWD 170635
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
135 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Very isolated thundershowers may occur east of I-35 this
  afternoon.

- Elevated fire weather concerns will continue into this weekend,
  particularly along and west of the I-35 corridor.

- Slightly cooler weather and low rain chances return late Sunday
  into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 127 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Skies are mostly clear this Thursday morning as North Texas remains 
under the influence of a 600dam subtropical high currently centered 
over the Mississippi Valley per latest water vapor imagery. A few 
cirrus clouds with origins over the Gulf are currently moving 
into our eastern counties, coincident with a plume of relatively 
higher PWAT values working in from the southeast. 

Convective allowing guidance initiates sporadic thundershowers east 
of I-35 this afternoon within the aforementioned plume of 
slightly better moisture. However, as the ridge axis moves west 
during the day, associated height rises will manifest subsident 
drying and increasing 700mb warm nosing. In tandem with a decrease
in surface dewpoints via diurnal mixing, parcels will find 
themselves competing against increasing SB and ML CINH. In 
combination with a lack of any obvious mesoscale forcing 
mechanisms, expectations are for any activity to remain very brief
and isolated in nature.

The ridge will take on an increasingly asymmetric appearance as it 
translates west, finding itself wedged between a cutoff low over the 
northwestern CONUS, an easterly upper-level low over Florida, and
an amplifying shortwave over Quebec. By Saturday, the 
aforementioned cutoff low will devolve into an open trough and 
will be displaced east, downstream of a secondary shortwave over 
the Pacific. As this occurs, the global models depict a weakening 
of the subtropical high's 500mb heights down to ~592dam by 
Saturday evening. Highs will still be well-above average around 
100F, but slightly lower surface dewpoints will keep us below Heat
Advisory criteria. With that "good news" comes a continued 
heightened risk of grass fire starts, however. 

Dornsife

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 127 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Anomalously strong mid and upper level ridging will finally begin to 
feel the squeeze by late Saturday as troughing spreads out of the 
Intermountain West into the Plains and an upper low over the 
northern Gulf tries to move westward. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms should be ongoing well to the northwest of our CWA 
late Saturday and Sunday associated with the trough moving into the 
Plains and a broad frontal zone extending northward into the Upper 
Midwest. We'll still remain hot on Sunday with highs near 100 again, 
but the frontal boundary will begin to sag southward Sunday night 
into Monday as the southern extent of the trough axis swings through 
the Southern Plains. It remains a little uncertain how far south the 
front will make it, but significantly cooler air will remain 
displaced well to the north. With the boundary lingering on Monday 
somewhere across the region and a fairly deep plume of moisture 
pooled along the boundary, we should see an increase in at least 
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. This trend should 
continue into the middle part of the week. Widespread wetting 
rainfall doesn't appear likely at this time, but a notable increase 
in cloud cover and at least some rain around will result in 
temperatures several degrees cooler with readings in the low to mid 
90s. Ridging does appear to strengthen again toward the latter half 
of the week which will continue to support above normal 
temperatures and low rain chances.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 127 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

VFR should prevail through the period. There is a small chance (10%) 
of a few thundershowers for Waco and eastern portions of the D10 
airspace. Expected coverage is too low to warrant TAF inclusion at 
this time. Southerly flow will back to ESE tomorrow afternoon, 
however flow will remain generally around 10kts. Expect a bit denser 
of a diurnal cu field, with bases around 7 kft. 

Dornsife

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   100  79 100  77 /  10   0   0   0 
Waco               100  75  99  72 /  10   0   0   0 
Paris               97  74  99  73 /  10   0   0   0 
Denton              99  77 100  75 /  10   0   0   0 
McKinney            99  75  99  74 /  10   0   0   0 
Dallas              99  80 100  77 /  10   0   0   0 
Terrell            100  75  99  72 /  10   0   0   0 
Corsicana           99  75  99  72 /  10   0   0   0 
Temple              98  74  99  71 /  10   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       99  73  99  71 /  10   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$