321 
FXUS64 KFWD 160644
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
144 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for portions of North and Central
  Texas this afternoon. 

- An elevated fire threat will exist primarily west of I-35 
  today. 

- Slightly cooler weather and low rain chances return late Sunday
  into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 129 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

IR satellite imagery presents with clear skies as North Texas 
finds itself under the influence of an impressive subtropical 
ridge centered over the southeastern CONUS. A weak mid-level 
disturbance rounding the western periphery of the ridge --evident 
on water vapor imagery-- tried to initiate a few showers across 
the Brazos Valley last night, though updrafts ultimately failed as
they encountered and likely entrained the subsidently dried 
airmass above 800mb. Although the model suite depicts some 
associated subtle DCVA across the western portions of our area 
through the morning, synoptic ascent won't be enough to overcome 
the overall thermodynamic environment. While a few strands of high
clouds may result, they will do little to temper diurnal heating.
In combination with better PBL moisture along and east of I-35, 
the Heat Advisory was extended for another day where heat indices 
will exceed 105F. 

There has been a consistent light QPF signal within and near the 
Piney Woods for this afternoon where a narrow axis of ~2.00" PWATs 
will reside. There, isolated instances of convective temperature 
breaching and pulse thundershowers will be possible around peak 
heating. 

The overall fire weather environment will continue to be 
heightened through the work week as low humidity and above average
temperatures persist amongst increasingly drought-laden fuels. 
That being said, the continued westward expansion of the ridge 
will result in a greater parallel mid-level flow component to the 
Southern Rockies, reducing the PGF and resultant surface winds 
compared to what has been observed over the past few days. 

The center of the subtropical ridge will translate back to the west 
on Thursday and Friday, maintaining the monotonous hot and dry 
conditions experienced as of late. A few showers and thunderstorms 
may try to work into the Brazos Valley tomorrow afternoon; a bulk
of this activity is expected to remain closer to the coast. A 
weakening trend of the heights aloft will ensue on Friday as an 
eastward-translating cutoff low over the northwestern CONUS and 
easterly upper trough over Florida exert their respective 
influences. 

Dornsife

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 129 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Heat continues into this weekend with highs running around 10 
degrees above normal and little chance for rainfall as stubborn 
ridging remains in place across the Arklatex. Troughing will amplify 
a bit during this time over the Intermountain West while an upper 
trough also moves westward across the northern Gulf. This will 
eventually weaken the ridging overall across the region and allow a 
cold front to slide south through the Plains as a shortwave ejects 
out of the Central Rockies on Sunday. While it's still a little 
uncertain how far south the front will make it, consensus is that it 
will be close enough for scattered showers and thunderstorms to 
possibly impact the region late Sunday night into early Monday. 
While we're not expecting any surge of cooler air anytime soon, 
additional cloud cover and some rain around will knock several 
degrees off of high temperatures for Monday and Tuesday. So instead 
of highs near 100, we'll likely see readings in the 93-95 degree 
range early next week. Unfortunately the pattern just does not look 
conducive to any intrusions of cooler air through next week.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 129 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for all TAF sites. Southerly winds ~10 
kts will back to SSE during the day tomorrow. A few ragged low 
clouds and resultant brief MVFR ceilings may impact the ACT 
terminal through this morning. Satellite trends will be monitored.

Dornsife

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   100  80 100  79 /   0   0   0   0 
Waco                99  77 101  76 /   0   0  10   0 
Paris               98  76  98  75 /  10   0   0   0 
Denton             100  78 100  77 /   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            99  77  99  76 /   0   0   0   0 
Dallas             100  80 101  79 /   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             99  77 100  75 /   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           99  77 100  75 /   0   0   0   0 
Temple              99  76  99  74 /   0   0  10   0 
Mineral Wells      101  74 100  73 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ092>095-103>107-
118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175.

&&

$$