733 
FXUS64 KLIX 160640
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
140 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES... 
Updated at 140 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

- Drier air from a back door front brings breezy conditions along
  coastal areas, unsettled marine waters, and a few scattered
  showers/storms today.

- More comfortable humidity and dry conditions will follow on 
  Thursday and Friday, but moisture and rain chances will begin to
  return by the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

A weak/subtle backdoor front is moving into the region from the 
east. High pressure is wedging down the lower appalachians, which 
will be responsible for decreasing surface moisture beyond today. 
Pressure gradient will also begin to increase with some coastal 
gusts approaching 20 to 25 mph during the afternoon. Additionally,
convection, although somewhat limited in coverage will be 
possible, especially over the MS Gulf Coast as well as southeast 
Louisiana mainly south of the I10 corridor. CAMs show some rather 
decent parameters. First, instability will be there generally at 
or above 3K-JKg. DCAPE values of 1200 JKg is also expected during
the afternoon, so wider and more robust updrafts will have the 
potential for a strong wind gust or two. PWAT values of 2.2" will
allow for efficient rainfall rates, but with the mean level flow 
allowing for storm movement (generally east to west), outside of 
the typical urbanized areas, localized flash flooding will be 
limited.

Going into Thursday and beyond, the primary story will be lower RH
values, which despite the lower to middle 90s expected for high
temps (nearing record territory), heat index values will not be
much higher as dew point values drop into the lower to mid 60s
during the afternoon hours. Otherwise, moderate easterly flow will
continue as moderate pressure gradient remains in place between
the high wedging down the Appalachians and the lower pressure in
the southern Bay of Campeche. (Frye) 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

While the daytime Tuesday medium range modeling agrees on the upper 
ridge being near Texarkana Saturday evening, and remaining over 
Arkansas for most of the long term period, they definitely do not 
agree on the upper low moving across Florida into the Gulf. The 
ECMWF side doesn't bring the upper circulation much further west 
than the west coast of Florida near Tampa by Saturday evening, the 
GFS operational has it off of Southwest Pass. The ECMWF solution 
sits it near Tampa for a couple days before weakening it and taking 
it northward near Tallahassee on Tuesday. In the 15/18z GFS 
operational solution, the low eventually makes it the entire way 
across the Gulf to Texas by the middle of next week. In a spread 
like this (west vs north), there's really no happy compromise 
solution regarding the upper feature, and WPC also notes the 
uncertainty. There's not much in the way of a surface reflection in 
the pressure fields in either family.

On the brighter side locally, neither family of solutions track real 
deep moisture across the area until perhaps midweek next week, if 
even then. Until then, precipitable water values look to remain 
generally in the 50th to 75th percentile climatologically (in the 
1.6 to 1.8 range). The upper high appears to remain close enough to 
our area to keep precipitation development on the scattered side and 
primarily during the afternoons. 

Even with different scenarios, in this case, the deterministic 
forecast ends up being fairly similar. Temperatures a bit above 
normal (90-95F) and scattered PoPs each day, primarily in the 
afternoon. (RW) 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Mostly VFR conditions expected through the overnight and into the
morning hours on Wednesday. There will be some limited convective
development during the day on Wednesday, but low confidence is
keeping most sites dry. Closer to the coast the surface winds are
forecast to increase during the day with some gusts for HUM, GPT,
NEW, and MSY approaching 25 to 30 knots at times. Winds should
decrease just a bit shortly after sunset and become far less
gusty. (Frye) 

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 140 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Surface high pressure will wedge down the southern Appalachians 
through mid to late week. This feature will increase low level 
pressure gradient and allow surface winds to increase to SCA 
thresholds today and Thursday. Seas will respond to these higher 
winds and increase to 6 to 9 feet in the open Gulf waters. These 
unsettled marine conditions will gradually abate late Friday and 
into Saturday. A few showers or storms may develop during the 
morning hours with some locally higher winds and waves possible, 
especially this morning. (Frye) 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM CDT Thursday 
     for GMZ529-531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM CDT Thursday 
     for GMZ531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF