933 
FXUS64 KFWD 150640
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
140 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for portions of North and Central
  Texas this afternoon.

- Well above normal temperatures, breezy conditions, and low
  humidity will lead to an elevated fire threat mainly west of
  I-35 today.

- Slightly cooler weather and some low rain chances return late
  weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday) 
Issued at 139 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Water vapor imagery places North Central Texas on the western 
periphery of an anomalously strong subtropical ridge currently 
centered over the Deep South. 0400Z objective RAP analysis depicts
500mb heights of 596dam at its center, which is considered strong
even for mid-summer standards. The FWD 15/00Z RaOb recorded 500mb
heights of 593dam, near the highest ever recorded of 594dam per 
the SPC sounding climatology archive for this time of the year. 

As the potent mid-level cyclone straddling the 
North Dakota/Canada border continues to translate northeast into 
Ontario, heights will rise across the Plains as further 
strengthening of the ridge will extend its magnitude of influence 
west across the region. Associated synoptic subsidence and a lack of 
any mesoscale surface features will maintain the monotonous weather 
pattern experienced as of late, with hot, dry, and mostly clear 
conditions once again expected for the day on Tuesday. Southerly 
flow early this morning will allow for the best moisture return 
to occur east of I-35; despite efficient diurnal heating and 
subsequent PBL mixing/deepening, surface dewpoints will only fall 
to the upper 60s. Coupled with high temperatures in the upper 90s 
to lower 100s, heat indices in excess of 105 can be expected. The 
Heat Advisory has been extended through 8pm for these locations 
east of I-35. 

An elevated fire weather environment will exist today as it did 
yesterday, with low humidity and well above normal temperatures. 
As the upper- air pattern flattens out across the northern CONUS 
ahead of the next shortwave set to amplify into the Pacific 
Northwest, mid- level flow will assume an orthogonal component to 
the Rockies and will manifest some continued lee troughing and a 
resultant tightening of the pressure gradient along and just east 
of the Southern High Plains. Winds up to 20mph will be common west
of I-35, in addition to RH values around 30% during the 
afternoon. 

The westward expansion and eventual westward translation of the 
ridge will keep the region hot and dry through midweek. Some 
enhanced sea breeze activity may try to work some precipitation 
chances into the Brazos Valley on Thursday, though current 
expectations are for a majority of that activity to remain in 
Southeast Texas. 

Dornsife 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Monday) 
Issued at 139 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

The aforementioned anomalously strong upper ridge will be centered
over the Arklatex late Thursday into Friday but indications are
that it will weaken a bit going into the upcoming weekend as
troughing amplifies over the western CONUS and an upper trough
moves westward across the northern Gulf. As a result, heights will
lower through the weekend across the Southern Plains with the
pattern becoming more active to the north. A cold front will slide
southward on Sunday and should enter our Red River counties after
dark and will be accompanied by slightly cooler air and perhaps
some increasing rain chances. While the strongest forcing for 
ascent will remain displaced to our north during this time, we 
should see an increase in storm potential late in the day Sunday
ahead of the front and continuing into Sunday night and Monday.
While it doesn't appear that we'll receive hugely beneficial
rainfall, these may be some of the higher widespread rain chances
that we've seen in quite a while.

Until then, hot and dry conditions will prevail through the end of
the week with highs near 100 each day and heat indices near 105
degrees. The threat for grass fire activity will also continue
through the week.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

VFR will prevail through the period. Southerly winds of 8-14 kts may 
gust to 20kts at times, however spreads remain below thresholds for 
operational significance. Some fair weather cumulus of bases ~7 kft 
can be expected. 

There is a small chance that brief MVFR cigs may occur again this 
morning at KACT. Forecast soundings don't look quite as favorable, 
but satellite trends will be monitored. 

Dornsife

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   101  80 100  80 /   0   0   0   0 
Waco               100  76  99  77 /   0   0   0   0 
Paris              100  76  99  76 /   0   0  10   0 
Denton             101  78 100  77 /   0   0   0   0 
McKinney           100  77  98  76 /   0   0   0   0 
Dallas             102  80 101  80 /   0   0   0   0 
Terrell            101  76  99  76 /   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana          100  76  98  76 /  10   0   0   0 
Temple             101  75  99  75 /   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells      102  74 100  73 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ093>095-103>107-
118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175.

&&

$$