976 
FXUS63 KDLH 151937 RRA
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 106 PM 
CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hazardous marine conditions today with gale force wind gusts  and 
high waves across western Lake Superior. Wind and waves diminish 
this afternoon and tonight.

- Additional rain chances late Wednesday/Wednesday night and  again 
Friday into early Saturday. The late week system could bring an inch 
or more of rainfall south of a line from near Brainerd to Moose Lake 
to Bayfield.

- Near-normal high temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s for  the 
later half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Wednesday - Thursday:

A zonal flow pattern aloft sets up for Wednesday and Thursday. 
Wednesday will be dry to start, but there is potential for some 
light rain showers (10-40%) across far northern and southern 
portions of the Northland Wednesday evening into early Wednesday 
night as the high pressure departs to the east. An additional 
surface high pressure center passing to our north Thursday should 
keep that day dry.

Temperatures moderate slightly for Wednesday and Thursday with high 
temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s on Wednesday/Thursday, and 
some mid 70s in the Brainerd Lakes to northwest Wisconsin on 
Thursday. Relatively warmer lows in the 40s to low 50s (warmest near 
Lake Superior) Wednesday and Thursday nights should keep any 
additional frost chances at bay.

Friday - This Weekend:

Another round of showers and thunderstorms are forecast to return to 
the Northland on Friday through early Saturday. Lee cyclogenesis 
develops a surface low in eastern Colorado on Thursday and ejects it 
through the Central Plains Thursday night/early Friday and into the 
Upper Mississippi River Valley late Friday into early Saturday. The 
exact track of the surface low and the northward extent of its 
attendant warm front and warm sector will dictate precipitation 
potential, amounts, and locations in the Northland for Friday 
through early Saturday. The ECMWF EFI QPF values with this system do 
show a swath of 0.5-0.6 (out of a maximum of 1) into portions of 
inland northwest Wisconsin along with 90th-plus percentile PWATs 
relative to NAEFS CFSR climatology, suggesting potential for an 
unusually higher than normal precipitation signal from several EPS 
members for this time of year. All this is to say that if the 
surface warm front sets up in the ideal location just south of the 
area, a low-level jet riding over to the cool side of the front 
could set up a band of heavier rainfall in southern portions of the 
Northland, particularly northwest Wisconsin. The WPC Day 5 Slight 
Risk area also highlights this potential for heavy rainfall. 
Additionally, the 13Z 9/14 run of the NBM rainfall amount 
probabilities for 0.5" or greater are 50-75% south of US-2, highest 
in inland NW WI, but don't drop off much for 1" or greater with 
probabilities still 40-65% for the same areas.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 107 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Scattered to broken stratus associated with the upper low continues 
to move across the area today, with a mix of MVFR and VFR cigs. With 
afternoon heating, expect cloud cover to gradually diminish with 
clearing skies though the afternoon. 

High pressure arrives tonight, providing clear skies and light 
winds. Fog may develop early Wednesday morning, with vis as low as 
LIFR. The most likely locations for vis reductions are HIB, DLH and 
HYR. There is also a potential for frost, which could limit fog 
development. The better chances for frost will be INL and locations 
northwest of HIB. Fog will lift early, with winds remaining light 
and variable through the end of the taf period. 

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Surface low pressure over southeast Manitoba will quickly move to 
near James Bay by this evening. Winds will veer westerly and perhaps 
northwesterly and are expected to strengthen through late morning 
into early afternoon. Gales of 35 to 45 kts begin to develop by 12Z 
(7 AM CDT) and will persist through early afternoon. Winds and waves 
will quickly diminish this afternoon into early evening. Small Craft 
Advisories and Gale Warnings are in effect for much of today. It is 
likely there will be a short period of time late Tuesday afternoon 
into early evening when Small Craft Advisories will be needed after 
the Gale Warnings end. Winds and waves will become light Tuesday 
night and persist at 15 knots or less for Wednesday and Thursday. 
Another storm system will move through the region Friday and 
Saturday which will bring another period of stronger winds and 
higher waves.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area 
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Fire weather concerns remain low through the forecast. Widespread 
wetting rain occurred Monday. Minimum relative humidity values will 
generally stay above 45 percent through the week. After breezy west 
winds today, light and variable winds are expected Wednesday as high 
pressure slides across the region. Winds remain light through the 
week, with scattered rain chances Wednesday night, with rainfall 
totals less than one tenth of an inch. More widespread rain is 
possible Friday into  Saturday.
See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown 
of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for 
LSZ121.
     Gale Warning until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ140>148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rothstein AVIATION...HA MARINE...Huyck FIRE WEATHER...HA