819 
FXUS64 KFWD 140653
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
153 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for portions of North and Central
  Texas this afternoon.

- Hot and dry conditions will continue through the upcoming work 
  week.
  

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday) 
Issued at 146 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

IR satellite imagery presents with clear skies across North Central 
Texas tonight as the axis of the 594dam H5 subtropical ridge resides 
over the South-Central CONUS. Associated synoptic subsidence and a 
lack of any mesoscale surface features will maintain mostly clear 
skies and dry conditions across most of the area for the day on 
Monday. Low-level flow trajectories will take on more of a 
southwesterly component throughout the day as an intense surface 
cyclone progresses ENE across the Northern Plains. Surface troughing 
will extend through the Lee of the Rockies, resulting in a 
tightening of the pressure gradient that increases with northwestern 
extent through the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Winds up to 20mph 
will aid strong diurnal mixing to bring dewpoint values down into 
the lower 60s west of the I-35 corridor; despite the continued above 
-average highs in the lower 100s, heat indices will remain near 
ambient air temperatures thus negating the need for any formal heat 
products. That being said, the slightly stronger winds and reduced 
RH values to around 30% will lead to heightened fire weather 
concerns especially out towards the Big Country. The Heat Advisory 
was extended through 8pm for locations east of I-35, where richer 
boundary layer moisture will reside and heat indices of up to 107 
can be expected. 

A few of the CAMs initiate isolated thundershowers this afternoon 
across Central Texas where sporadic instances of convective 
temperature breaching appear possible, perhaps in addition to subtle 
surface confluence as the winds respond to the overall pressure 
field. Any thundershowers that do manage to develop will remain 
short-lived. 

While the global models depict an eastward translation of the ridge 
axis through the first half of the work week, simultaneous 
strengthening maintains similar heights across the region as have
been present over the past few days. High temperatures near or 
above 100 degrees appear probable through Wednesday, with mostly 
clear skies and southerly winds of 10-15mph. 

Dornsife 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 146 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

An anomalously strong upper level ridge centered over the Mid South 
and sprawling westward into the Southern Plains will remain in place 
Thursday through the weekend. This will result in continued hot and 
dry weather with little relief expected through the weekend. Model 
guidance does show a plume of deeper moisture spreading westward 
across the Gulf and into South Texas during the day Thursday and 
while large scale forcing for ascent should be negligible, there is 
a signal for an increase in afternoon showers/storms across parts of 
Central TX associated with this feature. We'll have some 20% PoPs to 
account for this. Otherwise, the signal for an approaching frontal 
boundary late week has diminished in the global guidance with the 
upper trough over the western CONUS much slower in its eastward 
progression. This allows ridging to remain in place for a few days 
longer, but amplification of the western U.S. trough does eventually 
become likely headed into next week. This should be accompanied by a 
decrease in temperatures and at least low periodic rain chances.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 146 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

KACT: Ragged low clouds are developing around 1,500 ft across the 
Hill Country as of 0630Z. The KGRK VAD depicts southerly flow of 190 
at cloud level, which may ultimately result in some brief MVFR 
ceilings between 10-14Z. Forecast soundings support this potential, 
however coverage is expected to be SCT or less. Isolated 
thundershowers may develop southeast of the terminal during peak 
heating. Any potential outflow will be monitored. 

VFR conditions are ultimately expected through the period. Southerly 
winds of 8-14 kts may gust to 20 kts at times, though spreads remain 
too low for any operational significance and thus have been omitted 
from the TAFs. 

Dornsife

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   100  80 101  80 /   0   0   0   0 
Waco               100  77 100  76 /   0   0   0   0 
Paris               99  76 100  76 /   0   0   0   0 
Denton             100  78 101  78 /   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            99  77 100  76 /   0   0   0   0 
Dallas             100  81 102  80 /   0   0   0   0 
Terrell            100  76 100  76 /   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana          100  76 100  76 /   0  10   0   0 
Temple             100  75 100  75 /  10   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells      101  74 102  74 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ093>095-103>107-
118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175.

&&

$$