129 
FXUS63 KFGF 140442
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1142 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a high chance for wetting rainfall Monday across the
  region which could impact outdoor activities.

- Gusty winds are forecast Monday and Tuesday. This will bring
  minor wind impacts to parts of our area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

...Synopsis...

Surface high pressure dominates the region this Sunday 
afternoon, offering ample sunshine, lights winds, and 
temperatures in the 60s. These conditions extend through 
tonight, with a slight increase in winds from the south. This 
will help temperatures from tanking into the 30s, with low 
temperatures forecast into the 40s. This should also help limit 
the chance for frost, however, there may be some localized spots
in northwest MN near Lake of the Woods to Red Lakes area should
winds stay calm with the help of denser tree cover.

Still on track for widespread rainfall and gusty winds Monday
morning, generally after 8 AM. A stronger upper shortwave 
trough turning closed low moves through the northern High Plains
into south-central Canada on Monday. This will bring a plume of
moisture and forcing as it approaches the region to the 
majority of the Dakotas and Minnesota. This will also bring 
gusty winds both ahead and behind the wave. Minor wind impacts
are forecast in portions of northeast ND Monday night into
Tuesday where a Wind Advisory is valid.

Looking into mid to late next week, ensemble's evolution of the 
upper pattern continues to show signs of upper ridging, 
indicating at temperature trend that may gradually increase. 
However, the lack of more robust upper ridging means we should 
not see a drastic increased trend in temperatures, likely 
keeping them closer to average to slightly above average.

...High chance for wetting rainfall...

All guidance continues to agree in a leading plume of moisture 
and lift overspreading our entire region on Monday, bringing 
widespread rainfall for majority of the area. Within this plume
will also likely be weak instability, offering convective 
elements to percolate within the widespread rainfall. While 
lightning is not expected to be widespread/numerous, there 
should still be low level of activity/isolated instances of
lightning. This should bring at least a wetting rainfall to 
majority of the region generally between 0.2-0.7 inches of
rainfall.

Some guidance still offers a scenario that brings around 1 
inch of rainfall. This will likely be more spotty/isolated due 
to convective elements needed, if it occurs in our area at all.

...Gusty winds Monday and Tuesday...

As the system rapidly strengthens Monday, it will energize
southerly winds aloft as early as Monday morning over eastern ND
into west-central and northwest MN. With the help of topography
and a tightening pressure gradient, south-southeast winds
gusting 25-40 mph are forecast - highest within the southern Red
River Valley. While not forecast at this time, there is a low
chance scenario for isolated gusts 40-55 mph during this first
wave of gusty winds within the Red River Valley. It also remains
unclear how convective elements within rainfall may help
transfer strong winds aloft toward the surface.

As the day progresses and the system moves into south-central
Canada, a cold front sweeps west to east across our area Monday
evening. This will bring a second wave of gusty winds, this time
out of the west/northwest, and likely to be a bit stronger.
Gusts 30-50 mph are currently forecast, highest in Devils Lake
basin of northeast ND. This is where a Wind Advisory is in
effect Monday evening into Tuesday morning.

There is a scenario where even higher gusts 50-60 mph become
present as early as Monday afternoon with the help of deep
mixing amid the dry slot of the strong low. This could then be
followed by similar gusts behind the cold front. Should this
occur, a High Wind Warning may be needed - although confidence
in this scenario is low. Lowered confidence in this higher
impact winds stem from uncertainties in timing of the dry slot
as well as strength of cold air advection/mixing potential.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

A tricky TAF period as a combination of LLWS, MVFR to IFR 
ceilings, rain and winds all bring aviation impacts. The TAF 
period begins quiet through the overnight period. However, by 
Monday morning, rain will overspread TAF sites from west to 
east. Instability, while present, was too low to include any 
TSRA mention. With the rain will come gusty south/southeasterly
winds and MVFR to IFR ceilings. Rain will clear late Monday 
afternoon. As it does, ceilings will slowly improve into Monday
evening, eventually going SCT. Winds however will begin to shift
to the west as a cold front arrives. This is particularly true
at KDVL, where the front will be passing through by late
evening. This front will keep winds elevated into the overnight
period. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory from 10 PM Monday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for NDZ006-
     007-014-015-024-026-028-054.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...Rafferty