027 
FXUS64 KFWD 132352
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
652 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for portions of North and Central
  Texas through 8 PM Monday.

- Hot and dry conditions will continue through the upcoming work 
  week.
  

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

As ridging builds over much of the southern and southeastern
CONUS, synoptic scale subsidence and surface high pressure will
allow dry conditions and above normal temperatures to persist
today into tomorrow. Despite strong diurnal mixing throughout the
afternoon, surface dew points in the 60s and low 70s along with
afternoon highs in the upper-90s and lower-100s will result in
peak heat indices ranging from 100-107 degrees. As such, a Heat 
Advisory is in effect across much of North and Central Texas today.
Tomorrow, the Heat Advisory is confined to the I-35 corridor and 
eastward. This area will see richer boundary layer moisture and 
higher heat indices (105-107 degrees) compared to west of the 
I-35 corridor (100-104 degrees) where strong mixing and gusty 
southwesterly winds will help afternoon dew points drop into the 
upper-50s and lower-60s.

The abundant boundary layer moisture and a weakness in heights
over the Gulf Coast will promote very isolated rain showers across
portions of Central and East Texas (~10% chance) Sunday and Monday
afternoons. Any shower that is able to develop will likely be
brief in nature due to the entrainment of very dry air above the 
boundary layer. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Stubborn ridging aloft and the lack of any surface boundaries
across the region will result in the monotonous hot and dry
weather pattern across the region to continue through the work
week. Medium range guidance that resolved a potential weekend cold
front continues to shift it later into the following week with
the most recent model runs diminishing the potential for any 
cooler airmasses to work south into the area by the end of this 
forecast period. However, troughing over the western CONUS looks 
to deepen this upcoming weekend, shunting the strong ridge 
currently overhead to the east and bring in southwesterly flow 
aloft. This flow regime change may favor the return of low rain 
chances around or just after the end of this forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 649 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Overnight moisture return should allow for some low-level cloud 
development in the Brazos Valley tomorrow morning. KACT has a low
potential (15-20%) for brief MVFR ceilings from 11-15Z, but cloud
coverage is most likely to be SCT or less there. Elsewhere, VFR 
conditions are expected through the period, with breezy (8-14 KT) 
southerly winds and occasional gusts to 20-23 KT tomorrow 
afternoon. 

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    81 101  80  99 /   0  10   0   0 
Waco                77 100  77  99 /  10  10  10   0 
Paris               76  99  76 100 /  10  10  10   0 
Denton              79 101  78 101 /   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            77 100  77 100 /  10   0   0   0 
Dallas              81 102  81 101 /  10  10   0   0 
Terrell             77 101  76 100 /  10  10   0   0 
Corsicana           76  98  76  95 /  10  10  10   0 
Temple              75  99  75 100 /  10  10  10   0 
Mineral Wells       75 101  75 102 /   0  10   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091-092-100>102-
115>117-129>132-144-157.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ093>095-103>107-
118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Darrah
LONG TERM....Darrah
AVIATION...Fenske