931 
FXUS64 KFWD 130645
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
145 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for most of North and Central Texas
  this afternoon. Heat indices of up to 106 can be expected.

- Hot and dry conditions will continue into the upcoming work 
  week. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 138 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Recent water vapor imagery portrays an eastward migration of the 
anticyclonic flow associated with the 594dam 500mb subtropical ridge 
currently centered over New Mexico. This is consistent with the 
global model suite, which depicts amplification of the mid/upper 
level cyclone over the Pacific Northwest and a continued eastward 
translation of the shortwave over the Mid-South.

The region will be void of any notable surface features as the ridge 
moves overhead, which, when coupled with synoptic subsidence, will 
result in mostly clear skies and dry conditions as is seen on 
satellite imagery tonight (aside from some convective cloud debris 
near the Red River associated with decaying thunderstorms across 
Central and Northern Oklahoma). A few of the CAMs have some sea 
breeze activity approaching the Brazos Valley late tomorrow 
afternoon. Not expecting this to survive into our southern counties. 
 
This overall pattern also means that temperatures will remain around 
10 degrees above average for this time of year. Despite strong 
diurnal mixing during the afternoon, surface dewpoints are expected 
to hold in the mid 60s to lower 70s across the area. Paired with 
highs in the upper 90s to low 100s, heat indices will breach 105 in 
many spots, warranting an extension of the Heat Advisory for most of 
North and Central Texas for the day on Sunday. 

Hot and dry conditions will persist into next week. An increasing 
pressure gradient between a surface low over the Northern High 
Plains and ridging over the Southeast will drive winds up to around 
15 kts primarily west of the I-35 corridor on Monday. RH values in 
the 35% range aren't overly concerning, though the potential for 
grass fire starts may be slightly elevated. 

Dornsife

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 138 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Well above normal temperatures and a lack of rainfall will continue 
through the end of the week as persistent mid level ridging remains 
in place across the Southern Plains and southeastern CONUS. By the 
end of the week, the center of the ridge will become squeezed 
between a strong trough moving out of the Intermountain West and a 
slow westward moving upper trough over the northern Gulf. As mid 
level heights decrease, we'll see temperatures fall a few degrees 
over the latter part of the week into next weekend. A cold front 
will also slide south through the Plains during this time with 
convection initially remaining to our north. There is still some 
consistency among the medium range guidance for another front to 
slide into Texas by early next week with some cooler weather and 
increasing rain chances.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 138 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

KACT: Forecast soundings are suggestive of some low ceilings moving 
in around 09Z. There are some ragged low clouds beginning to 
develop across the Hill Country as of 0600Z, where better moisture
resides amidst some orographic uplift. The HRRR keeps these 
largely southwest of the terminal, however satellite trends will 
continue to be monitored. 

VFR conditions will ultimately prevail for both ACT and the D10 
terminals. Southerly winds around 10 kts will undergo their diurnal 
variation, veering to SSE during the day then backing to SSW 
tonight. Fair weather cumulus of bases ~7 kft can be expected by mid-
afternoon. 

Dornsife

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   100  80 100  79 /   0   0   0   0 
Waco                99  77  99  76 /   0   0   0   0 
Paris               99  76  98  76 /   0   0   0   0 
Denton             100  77 100  77 /   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            99  77  99  76 /   0   0   0   0 
Dallas             101  80 100  80 /   0   0   0   0 
Terrell            101  76  99  76 /   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           99  76  99  76 /   0   0   0   0 
Temple             100  75  98  75 /   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells      101  74  99  74 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-144>148-157>162-174-175.

&&

$$