150 
FXUS63 KFGF 110100
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
800 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms late Friday
  afternoon into the evening for portions of west central into
  north central Minnesota and far southeast North Dakota. 
  Storms will be capable of producing all hazards. 

- There is a high chance for soaking rainfall Sunday night into
  Monday night across the region which could impact outdoor
  activities.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 800 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

RH has risen above 40% across the area so near critical fire 
weather messaging is being dropped from the forecast for the 
night as we continue to recover.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

A warm afternoon is ongoing, with temperatures ranging from the
upper 70s to mid 80s. Responsible for this warmth is an upper 
level ridge, but it will not last long. A deepening trough and 
area of low pressure to our northwest will drive a strong cold 
front through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Friday. High
temperatures will vary considerably across the FA, ranging from
the 60s in the Devils Lake Basin, to near 90 in the southern 
Red River Valley, where the front will not propagate through 
until mid or even late afternoon. Along the front, forcing 
should be sufficient for thunderstorm development, some of which
may become strong to severe. Thereafter, temperatures will 
remain seasonably cool into the weekend. Moisture will advect 
northward late Sunday into Monday ahead of a strong upper level 
low to our west that will bring widespread rainfall to end the 
weekend and start the work week. Temperatures will remain 
seasonal to just a few degrees cooler than seasonal into next 
week. 

...Near Critical Fire Weather this Afternoon...

For areas experiencing the most severe impacts from drought in 
southeastern ND, fuels have dried considerably. RH values this 
afternoon have dropped as low as 20 percent. Combine these 
factors with a steady 10 to 20 mph southerly breeze and near 
critical fire weather conditions are ongoing, and will continue 
through sunset. 

...Severe Storms Friday...

Ahead of a strong cold front, an axis of instability (2000+ 
J/Kg of MUCAPE) will be in place over far southeastern ND into 
much of west central and northwestern MN. Overhead, increasing 
midlevel west to southwest winds will improve shear profiles, 
promoting 40 knots or so of effective shear. Shear profiles will
likely vary across the FA. Hodographs show this well, with 
southern areas containing low level curvature, while northern 
areas (approximately US Highway 2 north) feature straighter 
hodographs. This will play into hazard type, with SPC 
probabilities highlighting a 5% tornado risk extending from 
southern Beltrami County southward throughout the Lakes Country,
within the area of better low level shear. With shear 
orientation off the initiating front, supercells at least 
initially are expected, but the strength of forcing and 
splitting storms in the north may result in a messier cluster 
mode within a few hours of convective initiation.

While the environment in west central MN certainly has a higher
ceiling due to the shear profiles and richer instability, there
are questions on if storms will form. This concern is two fold.
First, if the front pushes through a bit faster (some latest 
CAMs are showing this, especially within the REFS), storms may 
not form in our area, but rather our eastern border into 
DLH/MPX's areas. Second, soundings indicate that capping will be
present, with capping becoming stronger the further south you 
go within the FA. Therefore, if a combination of a faster 
front/stronger capping comes into play, the severe risk will 
become more limited in west central MN, leaving more of a 
hail/wind risk in the north. 

...Soaking Rainfall Early Next Week...

A large upper low over the Pacific Northwest will propagate 
eastward towards the Northern Plains late Sunday into Monday. 
There is some uncertainty in where the deformation band will set
up, with NBM probabilities in the 50 to 70 percent range across
the entire FA. Instability while present, will not be 
sufficient for any severe weather concerns.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 613 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

VFR conditions are forecasted throughout the TAF period. Winds 
will decrease after sunset, with gusts dropping off. A cold
front will pivot winds to the north/northwest Friday morning at
KDVL, and late morning at KGFK. The front will keep pushing 
southeast Friday afternoon, eventually switching winds at all 
terminals by OOz. Thunderstorms are expected at KBJI along this
front by the end of the period with a slower front bring
thunderstorm chances to KFAR (10% chance).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...TT