822 
FXUS64 KFWD 101804
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
104 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Isolated to scattered storms are expected mainly in North Texas,
  this afternoon/evening. A few storms may become strong with
  gusty winds, but the severe threat is low.

- Above normal temperatures will continue into next week with most
  areas rain-free this weekend and beyond.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Unlike the previous few days, today will be a bit more unsettled.
An upper-level shortwave trough will continue to move W-E over 
the northern Plains, shunting a cold front into the southern 
Plains. This front is currently draped across northern 
Kansas/southern Nebraska, and is expected to push into Oklahoma 
before stalling this afternoon. With the front remaining to our 
north and most guidance pushing the incoming cloud cover later in 
the afternoon, most areas will observe high temperatures in the 
mid 90s to around 100-101. We should still be able to mix out 
enough to keep heat indices just under Heat Advisory criteria for 
most, though isolated locales may still reach that 105-106 degree 
heat index value this afternoon in North Texas. 

Showers and storms are expected to develop on the front and will 
eventually surge south along an outflow boundary, moving into 
North Texas this afternoon and evening. Greatest coverage of 
scattered convection will be near the Red River and north of 
US-380, but isolated storms will remain possible as the outflow 
continues south of I-20 tonight. The overall severe weather threat
with this activity is low, though strong gusty winds and 
lightning will be the main hazards with any more robust cell or 
cluster. Though PWATs > 1.75" will allow for periods of heavy 
rain, the scattered nature of this activity means that not 
everyone will see beneficial rainfall. Most areas in North Texas 
will see rainfall totals through Friday of around 0.50", though 
some isolated spots may see totals between 0.75-1". Areas south of
I-20 and into Central Texas will observe even lower totals.

Most of the storm activity will be during the afternoon and early
evening, gradually waning in coverage the rest of the night with 
the loss of daytime heating. Isolated to scattered rain chances 
will still remain overnight into Friday as the shortwave itself 
exits into the Midwest. As the shortwave moves off to the east, 
expect any lingering rain to come to an end during the day Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Over this upcoming weekend the upper ridge will begin to build 
back into the Southern Plains in the wake of the exiting 
shortwave. This will effectively stunt any additional rain as 
subsidence becomes the main forecast player through the first half
of this upcoming week. However this looks to be only temporary as
extended guidance continues to show a shortwave trough displacing
the ridge to the west and allowing a cold front to slide south 
through the Plains into the region towards the end of next week 
into the weekend. While it is way too early to get into the weeds 
of specifics regarding effects on temperatures and rain chances, 
it'll definitely be something we'll keep an eye on as we go 
through this weekend into next week. Expect more details as we get
closer in time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Main concerns... Potential for showers and thunderstorms with
strong, gusty outflow winds later this afternoon through late
evening.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected in D10 beginning mid to
late afternoon and will move southeast through the evening.
Strong, gusty outflow winds will be the main concern with any of
this activity. There will be a chance for a second round of 
showers or storms between ~04-06Z. For KACT, have dropped
prevailing VCTS to a PROB30 for -TSRA, as the probability of
terminal impacts has decreased. It's possible no convective 
activity occurs at or near the KACT terminal today/tonight, but 
we'll have to see how things evolve over the next few hours. 

Otherwise, VFR conditions and generally south to southeast winds 
will prevail through the period, with the exception of any outflow
winds from thunderstorms. Additionally, it looks like we could 
briefly have E/ESE winds in D10 behind the rounds of storms late 
tonight into early Friday morning. This would likely only last a 
few hours, with south winds returning by 12Z or so Friday. There 
will be a low (20-25%) chance for showers and thunderstorms 
throughout the day Friday, but the potential is too low to include
in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  98  79 100 /  40  40   0  10 
Waco                76  99  77 100 /  20  20   0   0 
Paris               73  94  74  98 /  40  50   0  10 
Denton              75  98  76 100 /  40  30   0  10 
McKinney            75  95  75  98 /  40  40   0  10 
Dallas              79  99  80 101 /  30  40   0  10 
Terrell             75  97  75  99 /  20  40   0  10 
Corsicana           75  97  76  99 /  20  30   0   0 
Temple              74  99  75 100 /  10  10   0   0 
Mineral Wells       72  99  74 101 /  40  30   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Prater
LONG TERM....Prater
AVIATION...Barnes