056 
FXUS64 KFWD 100715
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
215 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Isolated to scattered storms are expected mainly in North Texas,
  this afternoon/evening. A few storms may become strong with
  gusty winds, but the severe threat is low.

- Above normal temperatures will continue into next week with most
  areas rain-free this weekend and beyond.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Unlike the previous few days, today will be a bit more unsettled.
An upper-level shortwave trough will continue to move W-E over 
the northern Plains, shunting a cold front into the southern 
Plains. This front is currently draped across northern 
Kansas/southern Nebraska, and is expected to push into Oklahoma 
before stalling this afternoon. With the front remaining to our 
north and most guidance pushing the incoming cloud cover later in 
the afternoon, most areas will observe high temperatures in the 
mid 90s to around 100-101. We should still be able to mix out 
enough to keep heat indices just under Heat Advisory criteria for 
most, though isolated locales may still reach that 105-106 degree 
heat index value this afternoon in North Texas. 

Showers and storms are expected to develop on the front and will 
eventually surge south along an outflow boundary, moving into 
North Texas this afternoon and evening. Greatest coverage of 
scattered convection will be near the Red River and north of 
US-380, but isolated storms will remain possible as the outflow 
continues south of I-20 tonight. The overall severe weather threat
with this activity is low, though strong gusty winds and 
lightning will be the main hazards with any more robust cell or 
cluster. Though PWATs > 1.75" will allow for periods of heavy 
rain, the scattered nature of this activity means that not 
everyone will see beneficial rainfall. Most areas in North Texas 
will see rainfall totals through Friday of around 0.50", though 
some isolated spots may see totals between 0.75-1". Areas south of
I-20 and into Central Texas will observe even lower totals.

Most of the storm activity will be during the afternoon and early
evening, gradually waning in coverage the rest of the night with 
the loss of daytime heating. Isolated to scattered rain chances 
will still remain overnight into Friday as the shortwave itself 
exits into the Midwest. As the shortwave moves off to the east, 
expect any lingering rain to come to an end during the day Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Over this upcoming weekend the upper ridge will begin to build 
back into the Southern Plains in the wake of the exiting 
shortwave. This will effectively stunt any additional rain as 
subsidence becomes the main forecast player through the first half
of this upcoming week. However this looks to be only temporary as
extended guidance continues to show a shortwave trough displacing
the ridge to the west and allowing a cold front to slide south 
through the Plains into the region towards the end of next week 
into the weekend. While it is way too early to get into the weeds 
of specifics regarding effects on temperatures and rain chances, 
it'll definitely be something we'll keep an eye on as we go 
through this weekend into next week. Expect more details as we get
closer in time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Southerly winds will prevail through this afternoon at all TAF 
sites. This afternoon, showers and storms along an outflow 
boundary will move south through North Texas, impacting the D10 
airports between 22-03Z. The outflow boundary will temporarily 
shift winds out of the north, though thunderstorm winds may be 
more gusty and erratic in direction. Have continued the PROB30 
for TSRA 00-03Z at the D10 airports as coverage remains scattered
and there is still uncertainty on just how much development there
will be. If better alignment is seen in later runs, may upgrade 
to a TEMPO for that same time period. After the initial storms, 
winds will gradually return out of the southwest as isolated 
showers linger for a few hours before precipitation comes to an 
end around 07Z. The outflow boundary will approach ACT closer to 
04Z, but there is still uncertainty on coverage of convection that
far south and have kept the forecast dry for now.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    99  79  98  79 /  20  40  40   0 
Waco                98  76  99  77 /  10  10  20   0 
Paris               98  73  94  74 /  20  40  50   0 
Denton              99  75  98  76 /  30  40  30   0 
McKinney            98  75  95  75 /  20  40  40   0 
Dallas             100  79  99  80 /  20  30  40   0 
Terrell             99  75  97  75 /  10  20  40   0 
Corsicana           98  75  97  76 /   0  10  30   0 
Temple              98  74  99  75 /  10  10  10   0 
Mineral Wells       99  72  99  74 /  40  40  30   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Prater
LONG TERM....Prater
AVIATION...Prater