084 
FXUS63 KFGF 091208
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
708 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms Friday
  afternoon and evening for portions of west central into north
  central Minnesota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 704 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Water vapor at 12z is showing a well defined vort max moving
quickly east having moved over Fargo where t-storms did
develop. Just north of Fargo a strip of nearly 0.20-0.35 inch of
rain. That is moving east quickly and last of the precip will
exit our MN cwa by 14z. Scattered to broken altocu behind it
then clearing.  

UPDATE
Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

SPC Day 3 issued and updated key message. Location of where the
severe risk will be all determines on timing of the cold front
moving east thru the area along with the amount of low level
moisture that advects northward. At the present time, the level
2 out of 5 risk for large hail and damaging wind gusts is from
Bemidji to Fergus Falls to Wheaton MN and points east. Machine
learning/AI forecasts do target the the level 2/5 slight risk
area for later Friday. There is a non zero risk of a tornado in
the slight risk area, but uncertainity if that is our area or
just east/south.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

...Synopsis...

A robust mid/upper low is centered over Manitoba, with 
dry/subsident air centered over our CWA on WV imagery and 925 
MB CAA is spreading into our CWA from the west/northwest. An 
embedded shortwave within the flow on the back side of the upper 
low passes through the region later tonight and Wednesday 
morning an may bring a period of scattered light 
showers/sprinkles (wetting rain is not expected). Shortwave 
ridging followed by west-southwest flow aloft returns mid to 
late week, with even stronger southerly flow Friday. This brings
well above average temperatures back to the region during the 
later part of the week.

A strong cold front arrives Friday and a series of troughs and 
upper lows are shown to pass through our region with falling 
heights aloft, which should result in much more Fall-like 
temperatures returning (highs in the 60s). There is a strong 
signal for rain with the trough passage Sunday night-Monday 
night and NBM probabilities already show 40-60% chance for 
greater than 0.5" rainfall during that period across our CWA 
(highest chances in the southern Red River Valley). That is a 
hopeful signal for those desperate for a soaking rain in the 
south, however there is still enough variance in strength of the
upper low between ensemble clusters and mesoscale details 
creating uncertainty in where the most beneficial rainfall (1"+)
may ultimately fall. 

...Windy Conditions Today...

A combination of deep unidirectional westerly flow through the 
mixed layer, subsidence aloft, and clearing/deeper mixing have 
resulting in many locations across northeast ND gusting 45 to 50 
mph, with the highest gusts over the Devils Lake Basin. Some 
locations outside of the advisory are also gusting to 40 mph and
due to the depth of mixing occurring I would not be surprised 
if a few gusts to 45 mph could occur farther south towards I-94 
in southeast ND (chances remaining higher north in the advised 
area). The strongest gusts should wane as low levels begin to 
decouple towards sunset, and the expiration time of 7pm still 
looks reasonable. 

...Severe Risk Friday Afternoon and Evening...

Strong southerly flow should bring higher BL moisture back to the 
region, while strong westerly flow aloft overspreads the region
as a trough passes along with a strong cold front. In the warm
sector ahead of the front there is the potential for at least 
moderate CAPE values as steep mid level lapse rates will be in 
place, though capping may play a role in delayed initiation 
until the front and better synoptic ascent arrive. Timing of the
front and forcing and any capping ahead of this will all play 
roles in determining coverage and ultimately impacts. Strong 
effective shear is forecast across the region, with hodographs 
in the warm sector supportive of supercells and very large hail 
or tornadoes (mesoscale details will ultimately play a role on 
how this pattern is realized). AI based systems that have shown 
good skill this season highlight higher probabilities for severe
thunderstorms in our area, especially over west central MN 
which conceptually makes sense.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 704 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Fast moving upper level wave moving thru Fargo and toward
Bemidji at 12z and will be out of the area soon. Precipitation
with this will be out of the area before 14z. In its wake today
is predominately scattered altocu and a west-northwest wind
10-20 kts gusts 20-25 kts in E ND/RRV. Winds diminish this
evening with mostly clear sky. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...TT