781 
FXUS64 KFWD 090642
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
142 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Isolated storms may develop in the Big Country this afternoon.
  Severe weather is not expected.

- Scattered storms are anticipated in North Texas on Thursday, 
  with highest chances west of Interstate 35 in the afternoon.

- Above normal temperatures will continue into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 141 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Expect another hot and dry day for most as the upper level ridge 
remains planted across the southern CONUS. Afternoon highs are 
expected to peak between the mid 90s in Central Texas to around 
102 in portions of North Texas. While efficient mixing will occur 
this afternoon, humidity will remain high enough to push peak 
heat indices between 98-107 degrees. The majority of the region 
will remain in a Heat Advisory through 8 PM this evening, outside 
of our southwestern counties where heat indices are lowest. A weak
disturbance aloft will be located just to our west this 
afternoon, but will allow for isolated shower/storm development 
for areas west of the I-35/I-35W corridor this afternoon into 
early evening. Any storm that develops could produce gusty, 
erratic winds and lightning. Additionally, there remains a low 
chance for isolated development in our southeastern Central Texas 
counties as the sea breeze moves inland this afternoon. This 
activity will be mainly tied to diurnal destabilization, and 
should wane in coverage with the loss of daytime heating after 
sunset.

The southern CONUS ridge will continue to break down and flatten 
as a shortwave disturbance moves west to east across the northern 
Plains going into Thursday. This slight pattern shift will allow a
cold front to slide south, eventually stalling between Kansas and
Oklahoma. While the frontal boundary will remain too displaced to
our north to have any impact on temperatures, showers/storms that
develop along the front are expected to move south across the Red
River during the day on Thursday. The highest chances for rain 
will be in North Texas during the afternoon hours. Severe weather 
is not anticipated with this activity, though more robust storms 
could produce gusty erratic winds and lightning. PWATs > 1.75" 
will also allow for brief, heavy rain.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 141 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Showers and storms may linger in portions of North Texas through 
Friday, but should be more isolated in coverage overall. While the
weakness in the ridge aloft will remain overhead through the 
weekend, expect conditions to be mostly dry across North and 
Central Texas. The ridge is expected to begin to build westward 
early next week, eventually enveloping the region within the 
western periphery of the ridge. While we cannot rule out some 
isolated convection early next week, expect overall conditions to 
remain warm and mostly dry. Expect daily high temperatures through
early next week to remain in the mid 90s to around 100, while 
heat indices peak closer to around 100-106. This may indicate a 
necessity for additional heat headlines as we enter mid-September.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Expect VFR and southerly winds to prevail at all TAF sites 
through the next 24-30 hours. Over this afternoon and evening, 
there is low (20%) potential for isolated development out in the 
Big Country and west of I-35. Most if not all activity should 
remain displaced west of the terminals, with impacts only 
anticipated around the Bowie and Glen Rose cornerposts. Any storm 
that develops has the potential to produce gusty outflow winds, 
which may temporarily impact some D10 airports if the outflow 
boundary were to make it to the terminals. At this time, the 
chance of that occurring is low enough to only mention in this 
discussion.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   100  79  99  79 /  10   0  30  10 
Waco                99  76  99  76 /  10   0  10  10 
Paris               99  75  98  74 /   0   0  20  20 
Denton             100  77  99  75 /  10  10  40  20 
McKinney            99  76  98  75 /   0   0  30  20 
Dallas             101  80 100  80 /  10   0  30  10 
Terrell            100  76  99  75 /   0   0  10  10 
Corsicana           99  76  98  76 /   0   0   0  10 
Temple              99  74  99  74 /  20   0  10   0 
Mineral Wells      100  74  99  73 /  20  20  50  20 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-131>135-144>148-157>162-174-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Prater
LONG TERM....Prater
AVIATION...Prater