959 
FXUS63 KAPX 052241 RRA
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion...Retransmitted
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
642 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and storm chances increase later Tuesday into Wednesday. 
  Winds increase as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

On the front edge of a ridge tonight, and back edge of upper trough 
over New England. Consequently, high pressure will be in control, 
drifting across the Canadian Shield into the morning. Chance 
for some late fog tonight, mainly across eastern upper 
potentially leaking down into Pellston and vicinity, and then 
across the Interior near West Branch and vicinity. Overall 
should be a brief concern during an otherwise calm and chilly 
night. 

High pressure aloft continues to build over northern Michigan early 
next week with raising heights, keeping the seasonably warm 
conditions around. At the same time, conglomerate of energy ejects 
out of the PacNW into the N Plains around Tuesday. Response will be 
a sub 1000 mb low pressure system drawing an anomalous corridor of 
moisture (+3.0 sigma PWs) northward into the Upper Midwest and Great 
Lakes Region later-ish Tuesday into Wednesday.

Warm, moist advection later Tuesday into Wednesday combined 
with an approaching frontal boundary will lead to showers and 
embedded thunderstorms. Corridor of modest instability will aid 
in locally higher rainfall rates, especially given the anomalous
column moisture. That being said, current ENS guidance has a 
relatively low probability for rain over 0.5", highest probs 
favoring the E UP. Nevertheless, widespread precip chances 
appear likely during this time frame. 

In addition to the precipitation chances, combination of sfc high 
pressure sliding off to the east and approaching low pressure mid 
week will result in a tightening pressure gradient and increasing 
winds aloft. Consequently, sfc winds will increase, with breezy 
southwest to west winds on Wednesday, with gusts 30+ mph currently 
in the forecast. 

Cooler airmass filters in behind the mid week system, with Thursday 
being the coolest day. Few showers will be possible as well as a 
short wave dives across N MI. Tranquil for at least a day or two
before the next system/energy influences the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 144 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

High pressure will support primarily VFR through the entirety of 
the TAF period with SKC and light VRB winds. Overnight patchy BR 
development will likely lower VSBY's at KCIU, KPLN, and KMBL late 
overnight into early Sunday morning.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...SJC