851 
FXUS61 KCTP 052051 RRA
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion...Retransmitted 
National Weather Service State College PA 
239 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* No major changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Still a few showers/isolated storms across the far southwest
this afternoon.

2) A dry end to the last big weekend of the summer season.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Still a few showers/isolated storms across the
far southwest this afternoon. 

Drier air over southern Canada will continue to slowly edge
to the south and west of central PA over the next few days.

Still a few showers over the far southwest until around 
sunset today, as a wind shift line acts on higher dewpoints
near the MD border to trigger showers.

Aside from some fog late tonight, expect good weather to
prevail on Sunday.

More detail below.

Cooler air arrives later tonight as dewpoints and low 
temperatures drop into the 50s areawide (and touch the upper 
40s in the northwest mountains). There could be some fog tonight
as well, especially across the northeast part of the area.

   -------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: A dry end to the last big weekend of the 
summer season.

After a summer of stormy conditions, especially on the
weekend, this Sunday will feature lots of sun and dry
weather for the holiday weekend, as high pressure slowly
builds into the area. Low chance of a shower across areas
to our east and north on Sunday. Went with a dry fcst for our 
area. Enjoy your holiday weekend.

There could be some river valley, patchy fog Monday and even
Tuesday morning, given light winds, clear skies, and recent
wet conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Predominately VFR conditions will prevail across the area this
afternoon, with peak heating allowing for localized MVFR 
ceilings to mix out. Distant cut-off low over Atlantic Canada 
will trend winds N/NE'erly through the 18Z TAF period, bringing
a drier continental air mass into the region. A few rain 
showers have developed in SW PA (e.g. Somerset, Bedford) this 
afternoon, where precipitable water values remain elevated as
drier air continues to gradually filter into the region (PWs up
to 1.5"), though weak forcing & displacement of showers from 
richer moisture over VA will tend to limit shower coverage,
particularly at terminals. For these reasons, no mentions of 
SHRA were added to TAFs, with a ~20% chance of a steadier 
shower to move overhead at KJST/KAOO, where brief visibility 
restrictions primarily to MVFR would be possible.

Diurnally driven showers across the Commonwealth will diminish
this evening, where clearing skies may contribute to overnight
fog/low stratus development. Higher confidence in restrictions 
is for the northern terminals (KBFD/KIPT/KUNV) where lighter 
winds will be in place given weaker pressure gradient, with 
lower confidence elsewhere as winds may remain elevated enough 
to mix out fog/stratus. Gradual improvements to VFR are favored
where these overnight restrictions develop, with VFR favored
elsewhere.

Outlook...

Mon-Tue...VFR favored; morning fog possible.

Wed...PM SHRA/TSRA possible in the northern tier.

Thu...Cold FROPA may bring chances for -SHRA/-TSRA across the 
Commonwealth.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Martin
KEY MESSAGES...Martin
DISCUSSION...Martin
AVIATION...Teare