333 
FXUS64 KFWD 051045
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
545 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Very hot heat indices up to 106 are expected this weekend for 
  portions of Northeast Texas.

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected across
  much of North and Central Texas this weekend into next week.

- Isolated thunderstorms (10-30% chance) will be possible along
  and south of US-84 each afternoon and evening this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

With the departure of Edouard's remnants, a high-amplitude ridge
has developed over the Great Plains. With heights increasing into
the weekend along with surface high pressure and clear skies, 
temperatures are expected to be 7-10 degrees above normal. Highs 
across North Texas will be in the 99-103 range, while Central 
Texas highs will be slightly cooler (95-100) due to this week's 
rainfall.

During peak diurnal heating, scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop (30-50% chance) across portions of the
Brazos Valley, with much more isolated activity possible (10-20%
chance) along and east of the I-35 corridor, and along and south
of the I-20 corridor.

...A Discussion on the Heat Advisory...

With strong mixing expected across much of North Texas, despite
afternoon highs in the 99-103 range, dew points in the low and mid-60s
will be insufficient for heat indices requiring a Heat Advisory. 
The current forecast this afternoon has heat indices across much 
of North Texas in the 101-104 range. While isolated pockets of 
105-106 will be possible, coverage and confidence in these heat 
indices remain too low to issue a Heat Advisory for much of North 
Texas at this time. The exception looks to be across portions of 
Northeast Texas where deeper boundary layer moisture will exhibit 
a stronger resistance to diurnal mixing. Friday afternoon 
(yesterday), heat indices northeast of a line from Canton to 
Sherman ranged from 104 to 106. With ridging continuing to build 
higher heights over the region and an increasingly well 
established tropical airmass in place at the surface from 
Northeast Texas eastward, it is expected to have afternoon heat 
indices where the advisory was issued in the 105-106 range again today.

The potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms along and
south of the I-20 corridor and east of I-35 has precluded the
issuance of a Heat Advisory at this time in this area. While 
afternoon dew points will likely remain in the 70s, cloud cover 
from diurnally driven convection will complicate the forecast and
likely keep much of this area in the 90s during the afternoon and
evening. As such, heat index values will likely be just shy of 
Heat Advisory criteria (in the 100-104 range).

Lastly, the Heat Advisory across portions of Southwest Oklahoma
and North-Central Texas is primarily driven by afternoon air
temperatures in the 103-105 degree range. These hot temperatures
should remain just north and northwest of our northwestern
counties, keeping afternoon conditions just shy of Heat Advisory 
criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

The weather pattern this weekend is expected to stagnate with
strong upper-level ridging dominating the central and southeastern
CONUS. As such, above average temperatures in the upper-90s and
lower-100s will continue Sunday into the upcoming work week. There
is, however, one exception to this overall trend. A subtle tropical
wave over the Gulf will weaken heights just enough over portions 
of East-Central and Southeast Texas to bring low chances (10-20%)
for isolated showers and thunderstorms each day to the Brazos 
Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

There is a very low chance (10-15%) for a stray shower or
thunderstorm on the southeast side of D10 between 22Z and 01Z
today. Otherwise, south flow will prevail, but will vary from
southwesterly (190-220) before 17Z to southeasterly (110-160) after
17Z. Windspeeds of 7-13 knots and VFR conditions will prevail at
all TAF sites for the duration of this forecast period.


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   100  80 101  80 /  10   0  10   0 
Waco                98  76  98  76 /  10   0  20   0 
Paris               99  76 100  76 /  10   0  10   0 
Denton             100  77 101  76 /  10   0  10   0 
McKinney           100  77  99  76 /  10   0  10   0 
Dallas             101  80 101  80 /  10   0  10   0 
Terrell            100  76 100  75 /  10   0  10   0 
Corsicana           96  75  98  76 /  20  10  10   0 
Temple              98  75  98  74 /  10   0  30   0 
Mineral Wells      101  74 100  73 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for 
TXZ094-095-105>107.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Darrah
LONG TERM....Darrah
AVIATION...Darrah