835 
FXUS62 KILM 050737
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
337 AM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections updated with little change in forecast thinking. 

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) One last day of dangerous, potentially record-breaking, heat
today (Saturday) along with a low risk for late day severe 
storms and excessive rainfall. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...One last day of dangerous, potentially record-
breaking, heat today (Saturday) along with a low risk for late day 
severe storms and excessive rainfall.   

Should be the last day of excessive heat before a cold front moves 
through tonight into Sunday. The more westerly flow and minimal 
clouds should allow air temps to soar into the mid to upper 90s, 
possibly nearing record territory, especially at Wilmington where 
the record high is 95 degrees last set in 2023. The elevated 
dewpoints, generally in the mid to upper 70s, will yield rather 
oppressive heat indices generally peaking up near 110 degrees in 
many spots. Certainly could see brief heat indices over 110 but not 
enough confidence/coverage to warrant an Extreme Heat Warning so we 
maintained the ongoing Heat Advisory. 

Attention then turns to an increasing risk for showers/storms this 
afternoon into this evening as a cold front approaches from the 
northwest and a more organized line of convection tries to develop 
as deep layer shear increases in association with more 
troughing/energy aloft. The SPC is still highlighting much of the 
area, especially in NC, for a 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms with 
the main severe hazards being damaging winds and to a lesser extent 
quarter size or larger hail. Heavy rainfall is also likely with a 
low risk for flash flooding, especially near the NC coast where 
storms may be more persistent near the front. 

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z Sat thru 06Z Sun: High confidence in mainly VFR conditions 
outside a low risk for fog/stratus toward daybreak. Should see a 
better risk for restrictions from showers/storms later in the day as 
a cold front approaches. We have changed the PROB30 groups to TEMPO 
groups, generally for several hours either side of 00Z, as a likely 
line of storms moves southeastward through the area. 

06Z Sun thru Wed: Moderate risk for low clouds/fog late Sat night 
with a moderate to high risk for showers/storms Sun/Sun night and 
low to moderate risk Mon. Generally a low risk for restrictions 
thereafter with generally prevailing VFR conditions as high pressure 
builds to the north keeping drier air in place.

&&

.MARINE...
Today through Wednesday... Pretty typical summertime conditions 
today ahead of an approaching cold front which will move through 
tonight into Sun shifting winds more northerly, possibly reaching 
Small Craft Advisory levels Mon into Tue. Seas also look to build 
due to the long onshore fetch developing behind the front, possibly 
reaching 6 ft later Monday. Conditions look to improve toward mid 
week as high pressure builds more into the area from the north.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening 
     for NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening 
     for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...RJB
KEY MESSAGES...RJB
DISCUSSION...RJB
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RJB