015 
FXUS64 KLIX 030740
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
240 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES... 
Updated at 236 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast each day 
  through this weekend. While the overall severe weather threat 
  will be low, one or two storms could become strong to severe 
  each day, producing strong to damaging wind gusts, frequent 
  lightning and periods of heavy rain. 

- Above normal temperatures expected most of the 7-Day forecast
  period. Afternoon heat indices will generally range from 100 to
  107 degrees. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

(Today through Sunday)
A broad upper level ridge centered near the Tennessee Valley into
the Carolinas early today will gradually retrograde westward 
today and tomorrow while a weak easterly disturbance moves across 
the central Gulf Coast. For today, forcing remains rather weak, so
convection should largely be driven by the typical sea/lake 
breeze circulations and lingering outflow boundaries. Deep 
moisture remains in place with PWATs over 2 inches, supporting 
scattered afternoon convection and locally heavy rainfall with the
stronger storms. Highs should reach the lower to middle 90s, a 
few degrees above normal for early September, with peak heat 
indices generally around 100 to 107 degrees. Forecast soundings 
remain quite moist through the column but do show a dry slot aloft
as well as inverted-V signature at the surface. As a result, 
storms will need to be monitored for marginally severe downburst 
threat where greater heating allows instability and DCAPE to 
locally increase before storms develop.

By Friday, the easterly wave in the northern Gulf will be moving 
farther west across the area while the midlevel ridge continues its 
gradual shift toward the mid Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains. 
This should provide a somewhat more favorable environment for 
convection, with increasing low-level convergence and abundant 
moisture allowing storms to develop earlier near the coast before 
spreading inland through the afternoon hours. Rain chances will 
consequently be considerably higher than today, with scattered to 
numerous storms possible. Greater cloud cover and earlier convection 
should keep highs mainly in the upper 80s to around 90, although 
areas that avoid storms longer could still reach the low/mid 90s. 
Soundings remain fairly moist, so widespread damaging winds are not 
as likely as today. However, any localized midlevel drying combined 
with stronger pre-convective heating could increase DCAPE enough to 
support an isolated strong to marginally severe downburst.

Over the weekend, the upper level ridge becomes centered farther 
west over the southern Plains while the local area remains along its 
southeastern periphery. At the same time, troughing begins to deepen 
across the eastern CONUS, with the resulting weakness aloft 
continuing to support daily convection. Saturday should remain 
fairly active given the lingering deep moisture, with scattered to 
numerous mainly afternoon storms developing along mesoscale 
boundaries. Highs will generally remain in the lower to middle 90s 
with heat indices again around 100 to 107 degrees before convection 
provides some relief. As the ridge shifts farther west and flow 
aloft becomes somewhat more northerly, forecast profiles may begin 
to show slightly more midlevel drying compared to earlier in the 
period. If this occurs, increasing DCAPE and a better-defined 
inverted-V structure could modestly increase the potential for 
isolated strong downbursts, particularly where storms develop after 
prolonged heating.

MEFFER 
&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

(Sunday through Wednesday)
Moving into next week, the forecast area will be positioned 
between a broad upper level ridge centered over the southern 
Rockies and a longwave trough across the eastern seaboard. the end
result is that the area will find itself beneath a deep mid to 
upper level north- northeasterly flow pattern. A weak backdoor 
front will slide into the area on Sunday, stall, and then 
gradually dissipate on Monday. PWATS will be near seasonal 
averages and moisture will pool along and ahead of the front. This
moisture will combine with forcing along the boundary to support 
convective development each day. The convective activity may be a 
bit delayed until the mid to late afternoon hours as convective 
temperatures climb more into the mid 90s. This is due to some 
drying and warming aloft associated with the deep layer north-
northeast flow regime. However, ample low level instability as 
noted by MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/KG each afternoon will be 
sufficient to overcome any weak capping aloft and allow for 
showers and storms to fire up. The convection should generally 
remain below severe limits over this period, but conditions do 
look more favorable on Monday for some strong to severe downburst 
wind events to occur. A surge of drier mid-level air and steep 
lapse rates over 8.0 C/km below 850mb will allow DCAPE values to 
climb to around 1100 J/KG, and these values are supportive of 
strong downburst wind events. PoP each afternoon will peak around 
50 to 60 percent to reflect the convective risk as the backdoor 
front moves in and stalls over the area. Temperatures will also be
slightly warmer than average in the low to mid 90s as the drier 
air and later convective initiation allows for more daytime 
warming to occur. Heat index values will likely exceed advisory 
levels as we move into the weekend and HeatRisk is projected to 
move into Major category by Saturday. Anyone participating in 
large outdoor events and activities should take extra heat 
precautions on Sunday and Monday. 

Tuesday will be a bit drier day as the front over the area fully 
dissipates and the troughing to the east pulls away.  This will 
allow the ridge over the southern Rockies to spread eastward through 
the Lower Mississippi Valley.  As the ridge strengthens, drier and 
warmer air will feed into the mid-levels between 700 and 500mb. 
PWATS will fall below average and any convective development will be 
more isolated to widely scattered.  Any convective activity should 
also be more confined to the seabreeze. The one concern on Tuesday 
will once again be the increased potential for some damaging 
downburst wind events to occur with the deepest updrafts that climb 
above 30k feet.  The drier air in the mid-levels could easily 
entrain into the deeper updrafts leading to evaporative cooling and 
downburst development. This is supported by steep lapse rates over 
8.0C/km below 850mb and DCAPE of around 1200 J/KG Tuesday afternoon. 
Beyond the threat for a few damaging wind events, temperatures will 
remain very warm with highs climbing back into the low to mid 90s. 
However, the drier air aloft mixing down into the boundary layer 
should keep heat index readings just below advisory levels as we 
move into Tuesday.

Wednesday will see the mid to upper level ridge axis shift more 
toward the Tennessee Valley. This will open up a deep layer 
southeast flow regime into the region, and moisture will feed back 
into the area. PWATS will rise to around the 75th percentile and 
rain chances will increase.  Ample instability will be in place with 
MLCAPE of 1500 to 2000 J/KG expected, and the convective activity 
will also start earlier in the day with storms firing up on the 
coast in the mid to late morning hours and then spreading inland 
through the afternoon.  Higher PoP of 50 to 70 percent and 
temperatures closer to seasonal norms in the low 90s can be expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all of the terminals through the 
early morning hours. As we move beyond 15z, another round of 
scattered showers and storms will fire up as temperatures warm. Low 
level convergence will be maximized along coastal areas and PROB30 
wording with gusty winds and MVFR visibility and ceiling 
restrictions is in place at most local terminals for a few hours 
after 18z. Any impacts will be short-lived at an hour or less as the 
storm cells quickly pass through.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

The pressure gradient is expected to be fairly weak the next several 
days, lending to quite benign marine conditions over marine areas. 
This pattern will maintain winds generally 10 knots or less through 
the weekend with seas around 1 to 2 feet. The main potential impacts 
comes from daily rounds of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. 
Those will have the potential to produce locally higher winds and 
waves. 

MEFFER 
&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...ME