National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDLSX
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDLSX
Product Timestamp: 2026-08-28 19:08 UTC
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713 FXUS63 KLSX 281908 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 208 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonal temperatures continue for today and tomorrow, then summerlike heat returns next week with temperatures approaching 100 F. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026 Current upper air analysis shows a building ridge over the west- central CONUS and a center of low pressure over east-central Canada creating northwesterly flow aloft and a high pressure center over the western Great Lakes at the surface. This pattern has allowed for seasonal temperatures to continue this afternoon and overnight, and lower than average dewpoints (below 25th climatological percentile). Saturday, model guidance has the ridge to our west starting to push east, resulting in the high temperatures increasing into the upper 80s to low 90s. As the ridge sets in, temperatures are expected to be above-average beginning Sunday. Cluster analysis shows that the 500 mb heights associated with the ridge are anomalously high, being above the 95th percentile compared to climatology. This translates to another increase in temperatures during the day on Sunday with highs in the low to mid 90s. On Sunday, northeastern MO and west-central IL have the potential for some rainfall. Model guidance indicates strong warm air advection on the nose of the low level jet over IA and western Great Lakes that will provide support for multiple rounds of convection in that area. Convective remnants on the southern edge of these systems could dip south into northeastern MO and west-central IL, though confidence in this happening is low. Currently, LREF probabilities of even measurable precipitation are 10-40%, while the probabilities for even somewhat meaningful rainfall (>0.25”) are virtually zero. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026 Next week is looking to remain dry, with upper level subsidence setting in as the ridge moves east over the central CONUS. Current ensemble guidance is in agreement that once this anomalous ridge sets in over the central CONUS, it will remain over the region keeping the above-average temperatures around through at least Friday. The 850 mb temperatures will be at least in the low to mid 20s C (above 95th climatological percentile), translating to surface temperatures in the mid to upper 90s. LREF guidance shows there is a chance (30-60%) that central and east-central MO could reach 100 F or higher, which could be caused by southwesterly downsloping flow off the Ozark Plateau. While the temperatures are expected to be above average, perhaps the warmest we’ve seen all year, the dewpoints are anticipated to be notably lower compared to previous heatwaves. Long range model guidance indicates dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, with a small chance (20-40%) of dewpoints 70 F or greater in northeastern MO and west-central IL. As a result, heat index values in the upper 90s are possible with some areas peaking to near 100 F by mid week. This means that despite potentially warmer temperatures than earlier in the year, this heatwave is not expected to be as extreme as those from earlier in the summer. There still remains uncertainty of the magnitude of the moisture, and how much it will affect the resulting heat index values. Given that, our confidence is low to issue a heat headline for this event. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026 Mostly VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the TAF period. Similar to yesterday, overnight there will be cool temperatures, warm river waters, and light, variable winds. As a result, IFR fog is expected in the early morning hours before sunrise in the river valleys affecting KJEF, KSUS, and KCPS, but should clear quickly after sunrise. By the end of the day the winds will shift to be southerly as the surface high departs to the east. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Asel/MRB LONG TERM...Asel/MRB AVIATION...Asel/MRB