916 
FXUS65 KBOU 141715
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1115 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Another round of storms this afternoon and evening with a 
  continued threat of locally heavy rain.

- Monsoon moisture lasts through the weekend, bringing scattered
  showers and thunderstorms most days.

- Warming and drying trend still set to begin Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/...
Issued at 1245 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Today's weather will be similar to yesterday's. Monsoonal moisture 
will continue to stream into the area as the upper level high sits 
to our southeast and troughing sits over the West Coast. PWs will 
continue to be in the 120% to 200% of normal range today. A weak 
disturbance in the flow aloft this afternoon, upslope flow, and 
the high PWs will lead to another day of scattered to numerous 
storms. Storms are expected to develop in the afternoon in and 
around the higher terrain/Foothills, moving east/northeast into 
the late evening. Storm motion will be a bit faster this afternoon
compared to yesterday, which will help lower the flash flooding 
threat. However, the areas which have received rain over the past 
2 days will be more prone to flooding, due to more saturated 
soils. Instability and shear will be a bit higher this afternoon 
for our eastern plains. This could allow for a few strong to 
severe storms, with potential for marginally severe hail and 
strong winds. CAMs are less enthusiastic with the rain totals for
today compared to yesterday. This, combined with the faster storm
motions, has caused us to hold off on a Flood Watch for this 
afternoon. However, heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding 
is still a threat today, especially for areas that received heavy 
rainfall Thursday.

Upper level southwest flow will allow the monsoon moisture to remain 
in the area through the weekend. This will bring daily rain chances 
for our forecast area through Sunday. Instability and shear will 
remain high enough for a daily severe weather threat at well. 
Strong winds, hail, and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding 
will be possible each afternoon/evening this weekend. It is 
important to note, that with the rain chances Friday through 
Sunday, not every location in our CWA will receive rain each day. 
But, by the end of the weekend many locations will likely see some
rainfall, with potential for that rain to be heavy at times. 

Rain chances will decrease for Monday and Tuesday (still a low 
chances, but not as high as previous days) as the upper level high 
builds to our south and the flow aloft turns more zonal, cutting off 
the monsoonal moisture. Temperatures will warm closer to normal or
slightly above normal during this time, with highs around 90 
degrees in the urban corridor and plains by Tuesday. There's quite
a bit of uncertainty beyond Tuesday. Some models and ensemble 
members bring a weak front and a decent shortwave on Wednesday, 
lowering temperatures and bringing additional rain chances to the 
area. While other ensemble members, have a much weaker shortwave 
(if anything at all), causing very little change in temperatures 
for Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday/...
Issued at 1108 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Similar setup to yesterday. Sct tstms will develop between 20Z and
21Z and then move across the area thru 00Z or 01Z. Naturally if a
stronger storm were to hit one of the TAF sites visibility will
drop to 1 mile with brief MVFR ceilings. By 01z will see
decreasing activity, however, still can't rule out widely sct 
showers/weaker tstms thru 05z so will keep Prob30 in TAFS.

As far as winds, expect light easterly winds outside of gusty
erratic winds from tsmts which may see brieg gusts from 40 to 50
mph. For late this evening, winds will become light and variable 
by 05z before going light drainage by 08z.

At this time, not expecting any low clouds or fog late tonight 
thru mid morning on Sat. 

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for COZ036-041-042-
044>049.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AP
AVIATION...RPK